041
FXUS63 KOAX 222336
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING DEPICT
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE TWO, WE CONTINUED TO RESIDE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AS A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCE SLIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FILTERING INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, HELPING
TO BRING A DRY AND PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S, NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID-AUGUST.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WHERE CLEAR SKIES WILL BRING
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WINDS REMAIN THE LIGHTEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A NARROW SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE, LIKELY
CONFINING FOG TO LOW-LYING AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS.
SUNDAY...
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
PIVOTS INTO THE AREA. INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA, BRINGING POPS OF
40-60% INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, GENERALLY IN THE 4-9 AM
TIMEFRAME. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS STORM PROGRESS
TOWARDS THE AREA, LIMITING OVERALL STORM INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE WITH EASTERN PROGRESSION. LINGERING CLOUD COVER, AND
PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WILL KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
LATER SUNDAY, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AS AN MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF THE LLJ RAMPS UP,
HELPING TO FORM A LARGER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD, INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COMPLEX PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA REMAINS IN
QUESTION, AS INSTABILITY REMAINS MAXIMIZED AROUND 1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, DECREASING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER, INCREASING
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WAA COULD HELP SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FOR NOW,
POPS PEAK IN THE 50-75% RANGE NORTH OF INTERSTATE-80. A STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT ANY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
INTO THE WORK WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE IN THE PATTERN OR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WITH A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THE WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE PUSHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL
BRING A ROUND OF 30-50% POPS TO THE AREA. PERIODIC 15% POPS
EXIST THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH DRY PERIODS ARE EXPECTED TO
OUTWEIGH WET ONES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHERNLY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG
ACROSS EASTERN NE EARLY IN THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH WITH THE DRIER
AIRMASS THAT MOVED IN TODAY AND ADVANCING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING, FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED. A FEW PASSING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CLF
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