476
FXUS63 KOAX 231631
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY (50-60%) ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA - LESS RAIN IN THE FAR EAST AND ACROSS
WESTERN IOWA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE IS A THIN BAND
OF CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TIME THIS MORNING, WINDS
WILL SLOWLY VEER TO THE SOUTH, BUT THEY MAY ACTUALLY GO CALM AT
NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. WHILE PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE, THERE ARE A COUPLE FACTORS WORKING AGAINST
IT. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER GOOD MIXING
ON SATURDAY AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, PLUS BEING ANOTHER DAY
REMOVED FROM RAINFALL ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA. ALSO, MID-HIGH CLOUDS LOOK TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN 4-7 AM CT, WHICH WOULD PUT A LID ON THE RADIATIVE
COOLING.
STEPPING UPWARD IN THE ATMOSPHERE, RIDGING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LEAVES THE LOCAL AREA IN A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN BOTH IN THE SHORT TERM AND BEYOND AS THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO REMAIN FAIRLY STUBBORN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A
HEALTHY FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF TO OUR WEST AS WELL WITH A 1.25+"
PWAT CONTOUR EXTENDING FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANSIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO WALK ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE MINIMAL
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, SO EVEN THUNDER MIGHT BE HARD TO
COME BY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. NONETHELESS, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH MORE MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL
KEEP TODAY'S TEMPERATURES COOLER.
IT'S SORT OF A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND WORKING ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOKS LIKELY UPSTREAM IN SD AIDED BY
PRONOUNCED 925-850MB WAA BETWEEN 1AM-10AM MONDAY. MUCAPE IS ALSO A
LITTLE BETTER, ~500-1000 J/KG, ACROSS NORTHEAST NE DURING THIS
TIME WITH VALUES DIMINISHING SOUTH AND EAST. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY - ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SD/NE
BORDER.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND
AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED, THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS - GENERALLY WEAK
IN NATURE. IT IS REALLY TOUGH TO PIN DOWN PRECIP TIMING AND
AMOUNTS IN PATTERNS SUCH AS THESE. THE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
HARD TO TRACK WITH NOT MUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, AND THE FORCING IS OFTEN WEAK. WHILE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO KICK OF SHOWERS, THEY
ARE HARD TO DIAGNOSIS BEYOND 24 HOURS. NONETHELESS, WE WILL
HAVE SEVERAL MORE CHANCES TO ADD TO OUR HOT START IN TERMS OF
AUGUST PRECIPITATION:
OMAHA - 5.37" (+2.08)
LINCOLN - 4.57" (+2.31)
NORFOLK - 5.12" (+2.55)
LOOKING AT 500MB HEIGHTS FROM THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
(EPS/GEFS/CMCE) AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE END OF AUGUST, WE STILL
MAINTAIN POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
THUS, NO BIG COOL DOWNS APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON, ALTHOUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS MIGHT SHIFT 1-2 STATES TO THE WEST. THAT'D LIKELY
MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR DRY WEATHER PAST DAY 7.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH
PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. SHOWERS
AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KOFK AND KLNK, WITH COVERAGE MORE
SPOTTY EASTWARD TOWARDS KOMA AS SHOWERS BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW,
AROUND 20%, AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
CLEARING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT EACH TERMINAL, WITH REFINEMENTS IN TIMING IS
LIKELY. WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
CALM, A FEW 12-18 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING RAIN
SHOWERS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLF
AVIATION...WOOD
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