786
FXUS63 KOAX 242311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
611 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
- 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEDNESDAY. MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS RETURN AFTER THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN H5 RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEW
MEXICO/TEXAS AREA. A LONGWAVE TROF IS DRAPED OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF IS SEEN
ACROSS THE BORDER OVER SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SHORTWAVE TROF HAS ALREADY
SPUN UP A SFC LOW WHICH RECENT HAND ANALYSIS PLACES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. A FEW BOUNDARIES
ARE SEEN EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY PERSISTENT H7-H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS
MORNING HAS FINALLY PUSHED OFF SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT THE QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OVER FAR
WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTION OUT
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA TIED TO THE SFC FRONT DECAYS WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE SFC COLD FRONT TIED TO THE 1007 MB
CANADIAN LOW SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THE FRONT ARRIVES, HIGHS WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S. NEAR AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL SEE A RATHER UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE
AS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 1,000 TO 2,000 J/KG OF
CAPE. WHILE 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS BORDERLINE
(25-30KTS) AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WOULD
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, WHILE A NOTICEABLE LOW
LEVEL DRY POCKET SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
A BIT WEAKER HERE COMPARED TO FARTHER WEST AND NORTH, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE SOME CHANCE TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP. POPS AFTER
18Z GRADUALLY INCREASE AND RANGE FROM 30 TO 60%, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED SOUTH OF I-80 WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. POPS TAPER DOWN SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z BUT COULD SEE SOME
MORE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AFTER SHOWERS CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING, IT SHOULD BE A NICE DAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WARM
TO THE LOW TO MID 80S.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H5 RIDGE RETROGRADING A BIT TO THE WEST AND
AMPLIFYING AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THAT WILL PLACE US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED AND ALLOW MORE SERIES OF
WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW AND IMPACT THE AREA. AS SUCH, SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT EVEN THEN THESE CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT
15 TO 30%. IN ADDITION, WILL SEE HIGHS STEADILY CLIMB TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OFK AROUND 15Z, BEFORE
REACHING LNK NEAR 18Z, AND OMA NEAR 21Z BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE OF AVIATION IMPACTS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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