417
FXUS63 KOAX 250432
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1132 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY THIS WEEKEND. A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS
IS EXPECTED ALSO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
IT WAS A QUIET MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION AND THAT
RELATIVE QUIET SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
MAY BE A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. A DECAYING AREA OF STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST MAY PERSIST
INTO OUR AREA, BUT AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT
SHOULD LIMIT ITS DURATION. OTHER THAN THIS, EXPECT SOME CLOUDS
AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MORNING.
TUESDAY SEES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG A WEAK FRONT
OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE STORMS SHOULD REACH OUR WESTERN
BORDER BY MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DECREASED SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF
THE STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND MOVES THEM INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THIS SCENARIO, MORE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CAN
BE ANTICIPATED, ALONGSIDE A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. THAT SAID, THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY STILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY LESSEN
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND INSTABILITY
WANES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY END UP BEING TWO PLEASANT DAYS TO LOOK
FORWARD TO. A COLD FRONT BEHIND TUESDAY'S SYSTEM DROPS
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH QUIET WEATHER BOTH DAYS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FURTHER ADDS TO THE ENJOYABLE CHANGE. THIS
CHANGE IS SHORT-LIVED AS A WARMING TREND TAKES OVER ON FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S TOWARDS THE LOWER 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWESTERN US RIDGE BUILDS TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. IT REMAINS HUMID WITH PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCES TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT THE RETURN OF AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN, BUT WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES
COMES GREATER NEAR-SURFACE STABILITY TO OVERCOME. HOPEFULLY, AT
LEAST SOME RAIN BRINGS PERIODIC RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES, WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OFK AROUND 15Z, BEFORE
REACHING LNK NEAR 18Z, AND OMA NEAR 21Z BASED ON CURRENT
FORECAST GUIDANCE. WIND DIRECTION SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SHOWERS AND WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FOLLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE OF AVIATION IMPACTS IS
LOW CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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