611
FXUS63 KOAX 251730
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1230 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY,
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A DECAYING MCS STRUGGLED TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING. A FEW RAINDROPS MADE IT TO THE SURFACE, HOWEVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINED DRY. BY NOON, TEMPERATURES HAD
REACHED THE MID 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS, IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
NORTHWEST IOWA COULD BECOME THE FOCUS POINT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION, AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MAJORITY OF THE CAMS KEEP STORM
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST, OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, A FEW
STILL WANT TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND BRING THEM SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE FIRST SCENARIO APPEARS MORE
LIKELY, ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA WOULD BE
FUELED BY 1000-2500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WITH 30-40KTS OF SHEAR
SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS, MAKING THEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, DRAWING THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PLEASANT, DRY WEATHER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN TO THE PLAINS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AS AN UPPER RIDGE DRIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS, FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY THE
WEEKEND AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HANDFUL OF RIDGE-
RIDING SHORTWAVES WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY WESTERLY, UNTIL A WEAK FRONT PULLS THEM
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE UNLIKELY,
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WOULD BE
FROM 00-06Z AT KLNK AND KOMA, HOWEVER CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20%
AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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