683
FXUS63 KOAX 260348
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1048 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
THE MOST WIDESPREAD FOG EXPECTED NEAR THE NE/IA/MO BORDER
REGION AFTER 3 AM.
- QUIET AND PLEASANT WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S.
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY,
WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S BY THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COMPACT
MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUING ITS PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE
SANDWICHING A RIDGE BETWEEN IT AND A PACIFIC COASTAL UPPER LOW.
A COLD FRONT IS BEING PULLED THROUGH THE AREA, SCOURING OUT
DEWPOINTS WITH THE SOME VALUES IN THE 50S TRYING TO SNEAK INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. ALONG/AHEAD OF IT, WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM
AND EFFICIENT COOLING HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO PUSH DEWPOINTS PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WITH FOG BEING THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST. THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT THE DRIER ADVANCE WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO GET TO THE IA/NE/MO BORDER REGION WHERE FOG IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOST DENSE. ALREADY, LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA (KOFK, KFET, KRDK, AND KICL)
OF 5 MILES OR LESS, WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THAT
AREA WITH 5-6 AM EXPECTED TO HOLD THE THICKEST FOG.
AS THE SUN BEGINS STIRRING THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR FILTERS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, FOGGY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL DISSIPATE AND
SHIFT SOUTHEAST. ONCE IT DOES SO, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, A RIDGE
OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE, AND CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS SETTLE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN LOW-
TO-MID 80S ON TAP FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WON'T BE TOO FAR OFF, LARGELY BEING CONTAINED ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT THAT ARCS UP FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WE'LL BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
WOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET, BUT THOSE CHANCES LARGELY LOOK TO STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THURSDAY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A BIT OF A PATTERN
CHANGE, AS THE LONG-STANDING MID/UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST ERODES AND
EVENTUALLY IS SWEPT EASTWARD BY A TROUGH INCOMING FROM THE PACIFIC.
OUR COOLEST HIGHS OF THE FORECAST ARE SET FOR THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A WARMING TREND THAT TAKES HIGHS INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S FRIDAY,
AND INTO THE 90S SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN-
MAKERS FOR THIS PERIOD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY IN A
LEADING SHORTWAVE, FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT
OVER THE GENERAL AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT WEEK COULD TREND
TOWARDS INCREASED RAINFALL, WITH SEVERAL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
HOLDING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN ANTICIPATION
OF A DEEPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE'S STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO COME INTO BETTER FOCUS, BUT FOR NOW,
SEVERE STORM LOVERS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL NEXT WEEK BEFORE CHANCES
RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AS NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SUNK SOUTHWARD. SPEEDS ARE
TRENDING DOWNWARD, WITH LARGELY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (COULD BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES) AT LESS THAN 5 KTS SETTLE IN. LINGERING HUMID
AREAS COULD TURN FOGGY EARLY WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEAST OF KOMA/KLNK
AND CLOSER THE TO THE NE/MO/IA MUTUAL BORDERS. OTHERWISE
CLEARING SKIES TOMORROW WITH WINDS PICKING UP A BIT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 KTS NEAR KOFK AFTER 16Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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