815
FXUS63 KOAX 280424
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1124 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS FROM
THIS SYSTEM 200 MILES TO OUR WEST MAY PARTIALLY OBSCURE
TONIGHT'S LUNAR ECLIPSE. BEYOND THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT, BUT MOST REMAIN
DRY. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOUTH WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES
THE AREA TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIP INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
THIS WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES BUILD. A COMBINATION OF THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL NOT ONLY FUEL
WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE HUMID AS
WELL, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. WITH ANY
WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY.
EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA, INCREASING STABILITY
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT THEIR PERSISTENCE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. THIS
HELPS LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
THOUGH THIS REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVERHEAD DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THEY
REMAIN LIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASING CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT, THEREFOR AVIATION IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF THIS CHANGES. IF AVIATION
IMPACTS WERE TO OCCUR, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY WITH WESTERN EXTENT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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