206
FXUS63 KOAX 281704
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S.
- A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS FROM
THIS SYSTEM 200 MILES TO OUR WEST MAY PARTIALLY OBSCURE
TONIGHT'S LUNAR ECLIPSE. BEYOND THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT, BUT MOST REMAIN
DRY. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW 60S BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE TO OUR WEST DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CAUSE
SOUTH WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH GLANCES
THE AREA TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA,
BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIP INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES.
THIS WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES BUILD. A COMBINATION OF THE
SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND TROUGHING TO THE NORTH WILL NOT ONLY FUEL
WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT ALSO RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY PUSH INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE HUMID AS
WELL, RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. WITH ANY
WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
HOT TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE UNLIKELY.
EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE AREA, INCREASING STABILITY
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT THEIR PERSISTENCE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. THIS
HELPS LOWER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
THOUGH THIS REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL. WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE FOCUSED DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-23 KTS FIRST IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (IMPACTING KOFK) THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND IMPACTING KOMA AND KLNK DURING THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS A 40-45 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AMPLIFIES
AROUND FL020.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING (29/08-14Z). THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE, WITH A 15-20% CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...WOOD
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