782
FXUS63 KOAX 281719
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TODAY, WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS.
- A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100, AND WIND GUSTS OF
20-30+ MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUED INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING DEPICT
MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PERMIAN
BASIN WITH SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS. LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING SHOWERS HAS BROKEN UP,
ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S TODAY.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PUSHING FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SD AND INTO MN INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT, A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING LLJ, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING AFTERNOON MIXING, WILL LEAD TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS WILL PEAK IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH GUST UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL TAPER OFF AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN,
THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP 20-30 MPH WIND
GUSTS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL INITIATE A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD
OVERNIGHT, WITH A TRAILING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DECREASES,
BRINGING POPS OF 15-30% IN PLACE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, SHOWERS MAY
HELP TO BRING THE GUSTY WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE, WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE PULLS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BRING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH THE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IF
CLOUD COVER CLEARS QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, HELPING TO PULL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA AND PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK
IN THE UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING 100.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND PERSISTENT RIDGING PUSHING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE 99 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE, JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT
THE MOMENT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FORCE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNDAY, LIKELY WAITING UNTIL LATER SUNDAY OR
EARLY MONDAY TO REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
MODESTLY UNSTABLE, YET CAPPED, AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
CONDITIONAL ON IF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION CAN BE OVERCOME. GIVEN THE
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION, POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 15-20% SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA IN
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND DAMPEN AS SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TRACK OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. AS A RESULT, SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN ALOFT
AND TEMPERATURES WILL EASE SLIGHTLY, THOUGH STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE DAMPENED
RIDGE WILL LEAVE THE AREA VULNERABLE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE, BRINGING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%)
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS TIED TO SUBTLE WAVE TIMING AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS, WHICH SHOULD BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-23 KTS FIRST IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (IMPACTING KOFK) THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AND IMPACTING KOMA AND KLNK DURING THE EVENING.
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AS A 40-45 KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AMPLIFIES
AROUND FL020.
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING (29/08-14Z). THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN LEFT
OUT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE, WITH A 15-20% CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE
TERMINALS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page