874
FXUS63 KOAX 291044
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
544 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 20-30+ MPH WILL DEVELOP ALSO.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT TROUGH DIGGING TOWARDS THE
ROCKIES TONIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING LEE TROUGHING EAST
OF THE ROCKIES AND A LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE PLAINS. OFF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE WEST AND ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. WITH THE BETTER FORCING DISPLACED NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA, THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS
US. THAT SAID, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY CLIP
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT. WITH
INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE LOWER
70S THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEES INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE BUILDING
RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH. WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH AS HIGH AS
20-30+ MPH MAKING FOR A BREEZY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS SHOULD
ALSO HELP FUEL OUR HOT TEMPERATURES. WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S
OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100. WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT THESE WINDS AND ANY
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, A LEADING
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
THIS SHORTWAVE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY PACK A PUNCH WITH
STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
HELPING TO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CAN FORM.
WHILE RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS PROVIDES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
TEMPERATURES FORECAST, IT WILL REMAIN HOT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIMILAR TO OR EVEN HIGHER THAN ON SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NOW APPROACHING 105 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO THIS HEAT. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A WARM START TO THE WEEK
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S TO START THE DAY ON MONDAY.
NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE HEAT EASE SOMEWHAT. THE MAIN TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT US OUR WEEKEND WINDS AND WEATHER WILL MOVE OFF TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A "COLD FRONT" INTO THE
AREA. THE FRONT SHAVES SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES, BUT BY NO MEANS BRINGS ACTUAL COOLER WEATHER. IN
REALITY, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE THIS FRONT.
THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST, THOUGH DAY TO DAY RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AFTER THE
WEEKEND TROUGH. HOPEFULLY, MORE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT ARRIVES AS
WE MOVE INTO THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 1500-1800FT ARE UP AROUND
45 TO 55KT. THESE WINDS ALOFT SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 15-16Z AS
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15G25KT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH CIGS GENERALLY AROUND
FL200. COULD SEE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS, PERHAPS A STORM
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT CHANCES
ARE LESS THAN 20%. EXPECT WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO DROP OFF AT
KOFK FIRST THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
AND STALLS AROUND A LINE FROM KOLU TO KSUX. FOR KOMA AND KLNK,
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AROUND 00Z, BUT STRONG WINDS NEAR 50KT
RETURN OFF THE SURFACE AROUND 1800 FT STARTING AROUND 03Z THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA,
BUT AGAIN CHANCES ARE ONLY AROUND 15-20% SO NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
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