303
FXUS63 KOAX 292326
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
626 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY, OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT UP TO 20-30 MPH.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN MCS, MOVING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA,
BROUGHT A COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO PARTS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA TODAY. BEHIND THIS WAVE, AN UPPER
RIDGE CONTINUED TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY NOON,
TEMPERATURES HAD ALREADY PUSHED INTO THE THE LOW 80S, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH LOW TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 60S, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
PATCHY CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OUT OF THE 70S OVERNIGHT, BEFORE THE
THERMAL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES FROM SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING
INTO THE LOW 100S. HOWEVER, A LEADING SHORTWAVE, RIPPLING THROUGH
THE RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, COULD THROW A WRENCH IN
THAT. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS WAVE SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON COULD TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, WHERE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING
MARGINAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, A FEW GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM THAT DEVELOPS. BUT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH AMPLE CAPE BUT WEAK SHEAR.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND FLATTEN,
WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST, DRAGGING A
WEAK "COLD" FRONT INTO THE REGION AND LEAVING US IN RELATIVELY MORE
ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BY A FEW DEGREES, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INVITE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO RIPPLE
THROUGH THE REGION NEXT WEEK, BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-30%). CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF
THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS TIED TO SUBTLE WAVE TIMING AND
MESOSCALE DETAILS, WHICH SHOULD BECOME CLEARER WITH TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
WIND REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO TOMORROW. LINGERING
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY, WITH THOSE
SPEEDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. ABOVE THE
SURFACE, STRONG WINDS AT FL015-020 OF 45-50+ KTS ARE FORECAST,
MAKING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN FROM 03-15Z TOMORROW
MORNING AT KLNK AND KOMA. BY 15Z, ONLY MID/UPPER CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN WITH WINDY CONDITIONS HOLDING AT KLNK WHILE KOMA/KOFK SEE
SLOWER SPEEDS. WE'RE WATCHING FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM REMNANTS FROM OUT WEST TO WAFT INTO THE REGION AFTER 07Z,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH WITH REGARDS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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