841
FXUS63 KOAX 300450
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WAFT IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT,
WITH A FEW AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE) AFTER 2 AM.
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING FEATURES A PROMINENT MID/UPPER
LOW PUSHING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH A BROAD BELT OF
ASCENT TO ITS SOUTHEAST POURING OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CONUS. ZOOMING IN LOCALLY, A MESSY SURFACE PATTERN IS IN PLACE
DUE TO THAT BELT OF ASCENT KICKING OFF POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS, AIMING THEIR REMNANTS TOWARDS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WHILE THOSE DECAYING SHOWERS
APPROACH, THEY WILL BE JOINED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION
THAT IS ALREADY STARTING DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA BEFORE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH LBF AND OAX SHOW
NOTABLE DRY LAYERS IN THE LOWEST 300 MB, GOING ALONGSIDE MODEST
MUCAPE VALUES TO SUSTAIN STORMS WITH A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OVERNIGHT. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE THOSE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AT
2 AM, MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST AROUND 8 AM.
AFTER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS STUNTED AFTERNOON WARMING TODAY,
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDED AND TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
90S ACROSS THE AREA, WORKING WITH UNCOMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A REPEAT OF THIS SHOULD HAPPEN SUNDAY, WHERE
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS STUNT INITIAL WARMING WHILE STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HELP TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE 90S AREA WIDE. HEAT
INDICES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 100-104 RANGE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE LINGERING HIGH
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE AREAS NORTH OF
THERE SEE SOME DRY AIR KEEP CONDITIONS MORE BEARABLE FOR THOSE
OUTSIDE. CAMS KEEP POCKETS OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE, AND WILL
BE THE MAIN FAILURE MODE FOR THE HOT FORECAST, THOUGH YOU WILL NOT
FIND A METEOROLOGIST AROUND THAT WOULDN'T MIND UNDERACHIEVING
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE OF STIFLING HEAT. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH LOW-END DOWNBURST POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
ONCE AGAIN ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET, MOSTLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DEFINE THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW EARLY TURNS
INTO A BUILDING RIDGE THAT TAKES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON AS COOLER AIR IS STUCK WELL TO THE NORTH,
LEAVING MANY FOLKS ATTENDING SCHOOL-RELATED OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
AND PRACTICES WISHING FOR THE FALL WEATHER TO ARRIVE.
WITH NO STRONG COLD FRONTS TO CLEAR OUT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA, SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL EXISTS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY
WILL SIT. EARLY PEEKS AT THE EXTENDED CAMS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE
FORM OF AFTERNOON STORMS, BUT THAT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE
ADDED LIFT OF AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE FROM COLORADO COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW TO FORM OR WAFT IN FROM THE WEST. THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR STORMS ONLY INCREASES TUESDAY INTO THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK, WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA,
JUXTAPOSED TO INCREASING INFLUENCE OF RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS TO REDUCE THE AMBIENT SHEAR. WE'LL RELY ON PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS AS OUR MOISTURE FOR THE AREA, WITH NO PARTICULAR
DAY THROUGH THE WEEK SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DESPITE DAILY
CHANCES (THOUGH ONLY 10-20%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT. WHILE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED, WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT
FL015-FL020 HAVE STRENGTHENED WITH WINDS OF 45-50+ KT EXPECTED
OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THESE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
15-16Z WHEN SURFACE WINDS START TO PICK BACK UP AS WINDS ALOFT
EASE. WE'LL SEE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE
AGAIN GOING INTO THE EVENING.
WE ARE WATCHING STORMS OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR POTENTIAL THEY
MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
WHERE THESE STORMS WILL TRACK SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW, BUT THERE IS ABOUT A 40% CHANCE STORMS IMPACT THE
TERMINALS, AROUND 08Z AT KOFK, 09Z AT KLNK, AND 09-10Z AT KOMA.
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 50+ KT. COULD BE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL (15% CHANCE).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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