446
FXUS63 KOAX 311704
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1204 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
MID-WEEK, WITH TUESDAY EVENING HOLDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
DAMAGING STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S, HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+
DEGREES, AND LIMITED RELIEF OVERNIGHT WILL ONLY FURTHER SETTLE
IN THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING FEATURES A NEAGTIVELY-TILTING
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER REGION, WITH
A BELT ASCENT STRETCHING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF IT, TRIGGERING A LINE OF CONVECTION HEADING
TOWARDS MINNESOTA. FOCUSING ON THE LOCAL AREA, STICKY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITHIN A RESERVOIR OF HIGH THETA-E VALUES
STRETCHING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO MINNESOTA, WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVES OVER THE FRONT RANGE POISED TO PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG
IT.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ONE OF THE FOCUSES OF THE
SHORT-TERM FORECAST, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE BEING
THE FORCING FOR INITIATION OF A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLUSTER WILL BE AT THE INTERSECTION OF
STRONG LOW- LEVEL WINDS DIRECTLY TO ITS SOUTHEAST, WHILE MORE
LANGUID CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THAT. IF THIS
CLUSTER DECAYS AND INCREASES THE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER WINDS, WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF
GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH NEAR INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN 6 AND 8 AM,
BUT LATEST RUNS OF THE CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THIS
IDEA; BOTH IN COVERAGE AND IN INTENSITY. OTHER THAN THOSE WINDS,
DECAYING SHOWERS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN WILL WAFT THROUGH
AND GIVE ANOTHER CLOUDY START TO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
SET TO PUSH BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SIMILAR
STICKINESS WILL REMAIN AS WELL, WITH THE MAX HEAT INDICES SET TO
TOP 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO
IOWA.
ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WILL BE LAID ACROSS THE AREA WITH
MODEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAKE FOR SOME LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK (1
OUT OF 5), WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT ELEVATED STORMS WILL
WAIT BEFORE IGNITING ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ EARLY TUESDAY AROUND
2 AM. WE COULD SEE A FEW HAIL STONES AND A GUST OR TWO TO 60 MPH TO
FULFILL THAT OUTLOOK, BUT CHANCES DON'T LOOK GREAT (ABOUT 5%).
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
ONCE DAY BREAKS TUESDAY MORNING, LINGERING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE BEING SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE BOUNDARIES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM CHANCES THAT DRIFT
INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AFTER 7 PM, WITH MODEST MID/UPPER FLOW AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH CONTRIBUTING TO CLUSTERED
STORMS AND SUPERCELLS THAT WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL, OR EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO COMPARED TO THE TWO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS' CHANCES. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP AS WELL, WITH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ONCE AGAIN BEING THE HOTTEST DUE TO MORE
PROLONGED SUNLIGHT.
HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS
THE MID/UPPER PATTERN SEES THE SHORTWAVES AND LARGER UPPER LOW THAT
SPARKED RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE FORECAST TRANSLATE NORTHEAST,
LEAVING THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE HANDS OF RETROGRADING RIDGING THAT
WILL ONLY SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT MAY NOT FALL BELOW 75 DEGREES AFTER TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IF THE FORECAST DOESN'T TREND COOLER,
WE'LL LIKELY BE ISSUING MULTI-DAY HEAT ADVISORIES FOR WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, WHICH WILL BE POORLY TIMED WITH THE RETURN OF SCHOOL-RELATED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE REGION
AND SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z, A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF AVIATION
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING IS LOW WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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