999
FXUS63 KOAX 311745
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100+.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S OFFER LIMITED RELIEF.
- NIGHTLY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
I WISH THERE WAS GOOD NEWS TO DISCUSS IN THE FORECAST, BUT THIS
IS NOT THE CASE. A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL FULLY SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION, LOCKING IN SIMILAR WEATHER FOR EACH DAY. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS PARKED OVER THE GULF COAST.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST RESIDES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. AS A RESULT, HOT TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO BE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE MOST
LIKELY TIMING FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE AID OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION.
OTHERWISE, DAYTIME HEAT KEEPS A CAP IN PLACE AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT BAY.
EARLIER MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LIFTED OUT OF
THE AREA, LEAVING BEHIND A SUNNY, BUT HUMID, AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 100. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. WITH HUMID CONDITIONS AND CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S. ANY RAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE
OR EXIT THE REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES A TOUCH HIGHER THAN TODAY,
BUT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY. IN THE END,
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HEADING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED. THIS ROUND MAY HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO
WORK WITH, SO A LOW CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ACCOMPANIES ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
COOL WITH CONTINUED RAIN AND CLOUDS WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH OF THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS,
BUT THE HEAT MAY INCREASE FURTHER. WITH THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
THE HEAT, HEAT PRODUCTS MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. WHILE THE
CURRENT FORECAST DOES TREND TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK, LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
THE WORST OF THE HEAT MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THIS CASE,
A PROLONGED HEATWAVE WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE HEAT PRODUCTS,
ESPECIALLY AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OFFER LIMITED RELIEF.
OUTSIDE OF THE HEAT, AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE THE NORM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORNING SHOWERS HAVE CLEARED THE REGION
AND SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z, A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF AVIATION
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING IS LOW WITH MAINLY
SHOWERS EXPECTED. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE OR
EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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