993
FXUS63 KOAX 021048
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
548 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 40-70% CHANCE FOR STORMS CONTINUES THROUGH 4 AM ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE SOME LARGE HAIL OR
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON (15-25% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID TODAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY EVENING.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR NIGHTLY STORMS. WARM
LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY. WHILE THIS STRONGER
ACTIVITY IS FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST, MORE ACTIVITY
IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TIED TO AN H8 LLJ. A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING 3,000-4,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS
THAT DIDN'T SEE CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING. LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THE H5 WAVE APPEARS DISPLACED MORE
TO THE NORTH THOUGH WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW ACTIVITY TIED TO THE LLJ WILL BEHAVE.
THAT SAID, LINGERING SFC TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR APPEARS STRONG AT
30 TO 40 KTS, SO CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD
LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONTINUED WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
A HOT AND HUMID DAY IS AHEAD OF US, ONE OF MANY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE REGION. AT
THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOTED NEAR THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WILL
BE A CONCERN FOR THE AREA.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THIS
EVENING, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A BELT OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
LOW CHANCE OF A TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FOLLOW ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING. AS THESE STORMS APPROACH, A GRADUAL
EVOLUTION INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AFTER 8 PM, BEFORE EXITING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS, DAMAGING WINDS IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT
LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THESE
SHOULD NOT POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WITH CLOUD COVER OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA AND SOUTH WINDS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
STRUGGLE TO COOL INTO THE 70S.
THE HEAT SLOWLY WORSENS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, THE COMBINATION OF
LIMITED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT, AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOW 100S IS LEADING TO CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS. A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS A RESULT OF
THIS. THE HEAT ADVISORY RUNS INTO THURSDAY WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO WEDNESDAY EXPECTED. THE STREAK OF OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO
THE 90S CLOSES OUT THE WEEK. WITH THE HEAT NOT SUBSIDING, AN
EXTENSION OR EXPANSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE
OF THE HEAT, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST NIGHTS, BUT THIS REMAINS LARGELY
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE HEAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT EASES SLIGHTLY. THE
WORST OF THE HEAT COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY, BUT SUNDAY ONWARD
SEES A SLOW, BUT STEADY DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH DAY. HIGHS
BACK IN THE 80S MAY BE SOMETHING TO LOOK FORWARD TO BY MONDAY
NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED NIGHTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
REMAIN DURING THIS TIME. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HOLD INTO
NEXT WEEK AS THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING WEAK SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
CREATE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KOMA AND KLNK. THIS SHOULD CLEAR
UP AROUND 15Z AS WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN AND SURFACE WINDS START TO
INCREASE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20-22KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AROUND 00Z
WITH WINDS ALOFT PICKING BACK UP AROUND 04-05Z TONIGHT. EXPECT
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO IMPACT ALL THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING AFTER
06Z (20-30% CHANCE).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR NEZ051>053-066>068-089>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
UPDATE...CASTILLO
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...MCCOY
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