189
FXUS63 KOAX 030457
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1157 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID AGAIN THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES
(10-30%) FOR NIGHTLY STORMS. WARM LOWS IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDE
LITTLE RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NNE FROM MONTANA INTO CANADA, WITH A BELT OF ASCENT
OVERSPREADING WYOMING/WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RECENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT LINKING UP WITH THE
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE, EXTENDING FROM
MONTANA THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER. WE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN EXITING THE AREA, PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA AFTER DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AS FOR ANY
FURTHER STORM OR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WE'LL BE WAITING THROUGH THE
NIGHT UNTIL WESTERLY 700 MB WINDS INCREASE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WITH SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE
OR TWO OF THUNDER ANTICIPATED AFTER 5 AM, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE MORNING.
ASIDE FROM THOSE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ARE SLATED TO ONLY FALL
INTO THE 70S THIS EVENING, LIMITING THE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THAT
HAS FULLY SETTLED IN FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALREADY, A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN PLACE FOR BUTLER TO POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTIES AND POINTS
SOUTHWARD FOR HEAT INDICES THAT REACHED INTO THE 100-107 RANGE, AND
ARE SALTED TO REACH SIMILAR VALUES TOMORROW DESPITE INITIAL SHOWERS.
CLEARING SKIES BY NOON WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE AREA TO
HEAT UP. SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN AS THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS REMAIN WEST
ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE BETTER
LLJ CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
BY FRIDAY, THE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL HAVE SHED OFF THROUGH
THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LOW PARKED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH LITTLE EFFECT IN TERMS OF THE DAY-TO-DAY
WEATHER PATTERN. STOUT RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE AREA WITH
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTION INITIATING UP THE HIGH PLAINS OR ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS POINTED SOUTHEAST. WE'LL
RELY ON ESTABLISHED AREAS OF CONVECTION TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST
(CARRIED BY THE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW), OR FOR STORMS TO PUSH INTO
THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT FROM THE NORTH. REGARDLESS, ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PAINT A BLEAK PICTURE FOR THOSE NEEDING MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S REMAINING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNDERNEATH THE CONTINUED RIDGING ALOFT. ARE
THESE TEMPERATURES THE HOTTEST WE SEE COMPARED TO THE SUMMER MONTHS?
WELL NOT REALLY, BUT THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR 7 DAYS IN A ROW AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FAILING TO FALL
BELOW 75 DEGREES FOR AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA SPELL FOR
MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK. WITH A HOLIDAY WEEKEND, FALL SPORTS, AND
OTHER SCHOOL-RELATED ACTIVITIES BACK IN FULL SWING HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND, THIS LAST GASP OF SUMMER WILL CATCH MANY OFF-
GUARD. AS FAR AS HEAT ADVISORIES GO, THIS IS ABOUT AS LATE AS WE
HAVE EVER ISSUED ONE/HAD ONE TAKE EFFECT, FURTHER HIGHLIGHTING
JUST HOW ABNORMAL THIS IS. THOSE WAITING FOR A PATTERN BREAK
WILL LOOK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHERE THE MAIN
MID/UPPER LOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, DRAGGING A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TO KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S.
FROM THERE, MODELS ARE SPLIT AS TO THE PRESENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST, OR IF ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES KEEP THE
HEAT AT BAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN
IS ONCE AGAIN LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS AT FL016
AROUND 40-48KT OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD
EASE ALOFT AROUND 14-16Z AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. MEANWHILE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP STARTING
AROUND 10Z THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHEN THEY WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS UNTIL THEY DEVELOP, SO PUT -SHRA THROUGH
THE PERIOD OF GREATEST CHANCES, THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA UNTIL AROUND 16Z. ONCE THIS CLEARS, EXPECT
FEW TO SCT CIGS AROUND FL090 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
GUSTING 20-26KT OUT OF THE SOUTH, EASING AROUND 00Z. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT STARTING AROUND
05Z, BUT LEAVING THAT OFF FOR THE NEXT TAF PACKAGE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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