027
FXUS63 KOAX 042312
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW 100S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES FOR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM LOWS
IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%),
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY 5% OR LESS), BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LARGELY IN CONTROL. HOWEVER, THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH SOME PASSING WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NE MAY
SNEAK INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH MOST SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THEY DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY PRIOR TO GETTING HERE, SO CARRYING ONLY A 20%
CHANCE TOWARD THE NORFOLK/ALBION/COLUMBUS AREA. THE MAIN STORY
TODAY AND GOING FORWARD, HOWEVER, IS THE HEAT. AS OF NOON
TEMPERATURES WERE HOVERING AROUND 90 WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. THIS WAS YIELDING HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100
IN MANY LOCATIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 105-110 RANGE FOR SOME SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES "COOL" SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 100. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR MOST, SO NOT MUCH RELIEF COMING WITH SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL SEE CONTINUED ON AND OFF SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POINT TOWARD THE AREA. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ANY NOTABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH, SO ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LOOK LIKE THEY'LL BE
UNORGANIZED AND FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED (I.E. THEY'LL GO UP AND
QUICKLY RAIN THEMSELVES OUT, POSSIBLY PUSHING OUT SOME STRONGER
WIND GUSTS AS THEY COLLAPSE). FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY, LATEST
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS GO UP IN NORTHEAST NE OR SD
AROUND 2-3 AM SATURDAY, AND GRADUALLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
OUTFLOW PRODUCES GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH IN OUR AREA. WHILE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS PRIMARY STORMS WILL INITIATE OVER SD, IF THAT SHIFTS
SOUTH, THE RISK FOR DAMAGING 60+ MPH WINDS AND SOME HAIL WILL
INCREASE IN OUR AREA. AS IT STANDS, HAVE A 20-45% CHANCE OF
PRECIP NEAR AND NORTH OF NORFOLK, WITH A 5% CHANCE OF A SEVERE
STORM. ANY GUSTS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF AS THEY APPROACH
THE PLATTE RIVER BY MID-MORNING. IT'LL BE WORTH WATCHING HOW
LONG ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGER, AS THEY COULD HAVE A LARGE IMPACT
ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY.
THEN FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WE'LL HAVE A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT
PARKS ITSELF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THAT
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING, AS
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING MORNING STORMS WHICH COULD DELAY
ADDITIONAL STORMS UNTIL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PICKS UP IN THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
WE FINALLY SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TOWARD
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND POSSIBLY OUR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK, AS THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER
OVERLAP OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THOUGH THAT WINDOW IS PRETTY
SMALL. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED, THOUGH WE WILL HAVE CONTINUED SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES AS VARIOUS BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE AREA AT TIMES. SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES REMAIN LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING GETTING ORGANIZED GIVEN THE
INCREASED SHEAR. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE GIVES US ABOUT A 5%
CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT ANY FARTHER EAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE EVENING. AROUND 08Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD, KICKING OUT A WIND
SHIFT AND SOME PERIODICALLY GUSTY WINDS THAT ARRIVE TO THE KOFK
AREA CLOSER TO 14Z. ONCE THOSE WINDS DISSIPATE, THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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