495
FXUS63 KOAX 050400
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1100 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY (20-40% CHANCE), WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM OCCURRING BETWEEN 5 AM AND
8 AM.
- OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH WARM LOWS
IN THE 70S WILL PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-40%),
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN LOW (GENERALLY 5% OR LESS), BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THE STALWART CUTOFF UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PROPPING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THAT TERMINATES IN A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HEAT IN THE BOOKS, THE ATTENTION
IN THE NEAR FUTURE NOW SHIFTS TO OVERNIGHT/MORNING STORM CHANCES
OVER PARTS OF THE NE/SD/IA VICINITY, WHERE ALREADY A SWATH OF
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER MARKS WHERE FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE LLJ IS OCCURRING. THESE CLOUDS SPAN FROM
NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, THE LATER OF WHICH
IS WHERE A BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY, DRY LOWER LEVELS WITH
INCREASE DCAPE, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL EXIST. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS, BUT THE
MAINTENANCE OF THEM COULD BE DIFFICULT WITH MINIMAL EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FOR THEM TO AVOID COLD POOL DOMINANCE. RECENT RUNS OF THE
CAMS HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE TEPID ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE, WITH SEVERAL FAVORING THE CLUSTER ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL SD TO CREEP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY
BEFORE FALLING APART NEAR THE STATE LINE. WHETHER THE DEVELOP
IN THAT AREA OR DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH, A 20-24% CHANCE FOR
STORMS EXISTS FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH ONLY A 5% CHANCE
THAT A STORM OR TWO CAN REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS, MAXING
OUT BETWEEN 5-8 AM.
ONCE THOSE STORM CHANCES SIMMER DOWN WE'LL SEE SOUPY CONDITIONS
MANIFEST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 70S WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS DOES APPEAR TO THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WITH POOR TIMING AS MANY WILL BE
TRYING TO ENJOY OUTDOOR GATHERINGS ON THE FRONT END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES ARE SET TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
100-107 DEGREE RANGE AT THEIR PEAK, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
FORECAST OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FOR THE LOCAL METRO AREAS. THE
TAIL END OF A HEAT ADVISORY CARRIES THROUGH 7 PM TOMORROW
EVENING, WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED GOING
FORWARD, SO DON'T BREAK OUT THE FALL SWEATERS JUST YET.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD CLING TO THE NEARBY BOUNDARY SET OUT
BY THE MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS SD/NORTHEAST NE, WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST THAT DRIFT TOWARDS US AFTER 10 PM. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LLJ
AND LEFTOVER FORCING FROM THE DECAYING MCS TO THE WEST COMBINE FOR
RAIN CHANCES COVERING EASTERN NEBRASKA. ONCE AGAIN, A LOW-END
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY (LEVEL 1 OUT
OF 5 RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL), WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOCUSED
WEST OF THE AREA.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY DRIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FROM THE NORTH TO MAKE
FOR A STORMY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, AS SEVERAL CAMS DEPICT A
MORE VIGOROUS SWATH OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS FAR EASTERN SD, INTO MN
AND WESTERN IA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXTENDED RUNS OF THE CAMS
HAVE FEATURED STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THEIR SURFACE FIELDS AROUND 4 PM,
WHICH WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE TO THE SEVERE RISK FOR
SUNDAY. MENTIONING THESE STORMS OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DOES BRING THE HOPE OF A COOLER EVENING AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION INTERRUPTS OUR STAGNANT AIRMASS WHILE HOPEFULLY
BRINGING SOME MUCH- NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE RECENTLY DRY AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL START OUT WITH MID/UPPER
HEIGHTS FALLING SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LOW OUT TO THE WEST BEGINS ITS
DEPARTURE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CANADA, DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXACT TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE PASSAGE WILL DICTATE SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL, WITH
AN AFTERNOON PASSAGE SPELLING HIGHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL AS STORMS TRY TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. BY THURSDAY, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUGGEST
THAT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
KS/MO, WITH A MORE UNCERTAIN FATE FOR THE BOUNDARY. SOLUTIONS HAVE
CONVERGED AWAY FROM THE GFS IN DEPICTING ANOTHER SLIGHT RIDGE, WHILE
MUCH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE ZONAL (AND THEREFORE
COOLER!) PATTERN THAT GROWS WITH UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE WEST STRUGGLING TO MAKE
IT ANY FARTHER EAST WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE EVENING. AROUND 08Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD, KICKING OUT A WIND
SHIFT AND SOME PERIODICALLY GUSTY WINDS THAT ARRIVE TO THE KOFK
AREA CLOSER TO 14Z. ONCE THOSE WINDS DISSIPATE, THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-
080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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