794
FXUS63 KOAX 061726
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
- VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO 100-105.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ALONG WITH PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGESCALE ANALYSIS REVEALED A CUTOFF LOW
CHURNING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND A PROMINENT RIDGE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. A SHORTWAVE RIPPLING
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE BROUGHT BUBBLING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. STORMS WENT UP QUICKLY, FUELED BY AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY, BUT STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION LONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SEVERE WIND OR HAIL IN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. BY
NOON, THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIP MAINTAINED
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S, WHICH WAS PLEASANTLY COOLER THAN
THE EXTREME HEAT OF THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS.
CAMS STILL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CELLS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS MARGINALLY BETTER
SHEAR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. IF DEEPER CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP,
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE
LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD INHIBIT THIS LATER
DEVELOPMENT, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, IN WESTERN IOWA. ADDITIONALLY,
HIGH PWATS, UP TO 2 INCHES, IN CONJUNCTION WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS
INITIALLY COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. CAM QPF
DEPICTS SEVERAL POCKETS OF 1-3" WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 5"+
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
FAR WESTERN IOWA, WHERE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO LABOR DAY, AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE UPPER RIDGE. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED PAC. NW LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT EASTWARD ON MONDAY,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH CLOUD COVER PROVIDING SOME
RELIEF AND THE SHORTWAVE SHUNTING THE THERMAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES TUESDAY. WHILE EXACT TIMING AND
SPECIFICS REMAIN A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT, EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO PULL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH
HEAT INDICES RISING TO 100-105. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK (5%
CHANCE) FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLEAR THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURNING BY MID-WEEK,
DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
OF 15-30% REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE AREA. GOOD NEWS FOR THE FALL-
LOVERS, LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, MOST GEFS AND EPS-AIFS MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO BRING A POTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
AND COULD KNOCK HIGHS INTO THE 70S BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND,
THOUGH DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXTENT WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, WHERE LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE EXACT TIMING OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDER AT KOFK WILL BE BETWEEN NOW AND 21Z. KLNK
COULD SEE A STORM IN THE AREA BETWEEN 23-03Z THIS EVENING. BUT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR KOMA FROM 22-01Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5-12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR IAZ043-055-056.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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