344
FXUS63 KOAX 070344
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1044 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WARMER
WEATHER RETURNS ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA TUESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS LATE THIS EVENING DEPICTS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A
CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO EXTREME EASTERN NE AND WESTERN IA
BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A BRANCH OF THE LLJ
NOSES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OTHERWISE THE BROADER CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA
PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WESTWARD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR MASS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND PULL EAST ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER, HELPING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A TIGHTENING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND MIXING INTO
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ON
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, PEAKING IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE MAIN WAVE APPROACHES. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
WILL COME FROM A 45-50 KT LLJ STREAMING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE AREA. IN RESPONSE, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1250-1500
J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS, THOUGH THESE VALUES IMPROVE OVER
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE NE/SD LINE. POCKETS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH POPS OF
50-75% IN PLACE, DECREASING SOUTHWARD.
TUESDAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICK THE NORTHEAST-
TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 102-108, ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA,
WITH VALUES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH BEFORE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH
THE EXTENT DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND CLOUD COVER
EXTENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE, IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WITH THE
BETTER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST,
DETAILS WILL LIKELY HINGE ON MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT COME INTO FOCUS
WITH TIME. SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR, THOUGH MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGER CORES THAT EVENTUALLY PUSH OUT
POCKETS OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. POPS WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN BY MID-WEEK, PUSHING HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 80S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY PEAKING IN THE UPPER
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FOR
REFERENCE, OMAHA LAST DIPPED BELOW 60 DEGREES ON AUGUST 27, WITH
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCE ALL THE WAY BACK ON JUNE 23, SO THE
MORNING SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY CRISP. A BRIEF MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH FRIDAY HIGHS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S.
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, THOUGH A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING PERIODIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CAN'T BE RULED OUT. GOOD NEWS FOR THE FALL-LOVERS, LOOKING
FURTHER AHEAD, MOST GEFS AND EPS-AIFS MEMBERS BRING A POTENT TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PUSH OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND COULD KNOCK HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXTENT WILL
STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT. THE PASSAGE ALSO BRINGS POPS OF 30-40%
BACK INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2026
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS
EVENING, WITH PATCHY MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS UNDER ISOLATED
HEAVIER STORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE TAF SITES, THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF THUNDERSHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE) AT KOMA THROUGH 07/04Z. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THEIR WEST,
BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY NORTH-NOTHWESTERLY WINDS BEFORE
RETURNING TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE LATE EVENING, WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page