379
FXUS63 KOAX 081749
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
- NEXT FRONT ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA
THIS MORNING. A COOL FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
WHICH WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE READY. THE 850MB JET
CONTINUES TO BRING IN A STREAM OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. PWAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL START AROUND RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR (1.8-1.9IN) AND ONLY GO UP OVER 2 INCHES AS WE SEE
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY
ENHANCE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY WITH GENERALLY AROUND
2000-2500 J/KG OF SB- AND MLCAPE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. AS FAR
AS SHEAR, THE MORE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WELL BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT WE DO SEE ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR (0-1KM
BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY) AROUND 7PM AS WE SEE WINDS INCREASE ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ.
WE'RE PREDICTING TWO BANDS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, THE
FIRST WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AROUND 05-06PM. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THIS BAND WILL EXACTLY SET UP, BUT
SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF I-80, SOUTHEAST INTO SALINE COUNTY
SEEMS LIKELY. THE SECOND BAND WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM BOONE AND PLATTE COUNTIES THROUGH THURSTON,
BURT, AND MONONA. STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO
STRENGTHEN WITH WEAKER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. AS WE SEE SHEAR
INCREASE AROUND AND AFTER 7PM, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LINE WHERE WE COULD SEE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A
TORNADO OR TWO BEFORE THIS LINE WEAKENS AND THE NORTHERN LINE
BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. ONCE THE NORTHERN LINE TAKES OVER, EXPECT
MORE TYPICAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM THREATS, MAINLY BEING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WE ARE ALSO VERY CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH RAIN THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE, ESPECIALLY AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PWATS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD TERRITORY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, THESE
STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALL WEST TO EAST
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SIGNALS INDICATING LIKELY TRAINING OF STORMS
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY (THE NORTHERN LINE MENTIONED ABOVE). HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN
LIKELY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA ANYWHERE FROM NORFOLK TO
LINCOLN. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH THE BAND OF RAIN DROPPING SOUTH AROUND 7AM AND CLEARING LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ONCE STORMS WRAP UP WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE FORECAST BECOMES QUIETER
FOR A COUPLE DAYS AS A SURFACE HIGH OUT OF CANADA SHIFTS SOUTH
OVER OUR AREA BRINING IN PLEASANT, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS OUR AREA WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS THE STUBBORN RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES HOT WILL BE PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE REINFORCING THE CAA INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.
A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME SETS UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK AS
RIDGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FIGHTS AGAINST AN ACTIVE SERIES OF
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACNW OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE FIRST
STRONGER OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS WE'LL SEE
TEMPERATURE WARM BACK UP ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. COULD BE BREEZY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA CLOSER TO THE
FRONT WHERE GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT
ADVANCES SOUTH ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY SEVERE. SPC
HAS US HIGHLIGHTED UNDER A 15% OUTLOOK FOR DAY 4 WHICH USUALLY LINES
UP WITH AT LEAST A COMING SLIGHT OR ENHANCED RISK. WHAT MAY HELP OUR
SITUATION IS THAT WE'LL BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE MAIN WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW, WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY TO OUR NORTH OVER
EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN. CERTAINLY A TIME PERIOD TO MONITOR.
THE FORECAST DETAILS GET FUZZIER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
STRONG THROUGH OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST PUTTING US INTO MORE
OF A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH SHORTWAVES BRINGING A
SERIES OF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE IT LIKELY WON'T BE CONTINUOUS RAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD, UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THESE WAVES KEEPS
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S PEAKING
AROUND 80 SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING IN ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR KOFK. EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH
ANOTHER LINE OF DEVELOPMENT NEAR KLNK LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A
LINE OF STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING OVERNIGHT,
FINALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD
POTENTIALLY SEE LONGER PERIODS OF STORMS IMPACTING KOMA AND KLNK,
BUT LIMITED WINDOWS TO 2 HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS.
WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND STAY
OUT OF THE NORTH, WEAKENING AND POTENTIALLY GOING VRB FOR A FEW
HOURS TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF KOFK SEE SOME
CLEARING, FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 10-15Z, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN HOW WELL WE WILL CLEAR NORTH OF THE FRONT UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING ONCE
STORMS CLEAR SOUTH WITH WINDS HOLDING OUT OF THE NORTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ066>068-078-
088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ079-080-090-
091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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