856
FXUS63 KOAX 091727
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1227 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING STORMS COULD LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING.
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
- NEXT FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
TWO LINES OF STORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTED
THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS GENERALLY STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP BEYOND SUB-
SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH STRONGER STORMS
INITIATING TO OUR EAST IN DES MOINES CWA.
THE SPOTLIGHT WILL SHIFT TO HYDRO CONCERNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z
SOUNDING DEPICTED A PWAT OF 2.03", WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX OF 1.81. TRAINING HAS ALREADY BEGUN WITH THE SW
TO NE ORIENTED LINE. RADAR ESTIMATES AND MESONET REPORTS INDICATE
AMOUNTS UP TO 1-2" HAVE FALLEN, AS OF 11 PM. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 1-3" WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE
INCREASING LLJ NOSES INTO THE BOUNDARY REIGNITING CONVECTION.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL SINK SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT, USHERING PRECIP
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
SUBTLE RIDGING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY,
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
THANKFULLY, AS A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECTED TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE
FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING LAYER SHEAR WITH
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY AIDE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL. AS
SUCH, THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A 15%
DAY4 SEVERE OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES DIVE INTO THE 70S SATURDAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY, FINALLY GIVING US A HINT OF FALL.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT
BRINGING A MID-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF 40-60% POPS AS WELL AS A PUSH OF CAA INTO THE
REGION, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK EDGE OF
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION.
EXPECT NORTHERLY WINDS TO EASE BACK SLIGHTLY AFTER DARK. A FEW
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA BY 01Z. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AFTER 08Z ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL, BUT AT THE MOMENT, WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING FOG AT KOFK.
KOMA: CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO IMPROVE AT THE TERMINAL AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT WINDS
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND NOT A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, THAT SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AROUND
SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINAL IN FAIRLY
LOW, BUT WITH RECENT RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD COVER AND THE LIGHT WINDS, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW
POCKETS.
KLNK: MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINAL. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, SO IN THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE OVER FOR THE
TERMINAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA BORDER, BUT AS OF NOW, THESE
CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID- AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE. RECENT RAIN IN THE
AREA ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING UP
A CONCERN FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IOWA. THE
WORST OF IT IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE
TERMINAL; HOWEVER, THERE IS A CONCERN THAT IF CLOUDS MOVE OUT A
LITTLE QUICKER, THAT THERE MAY BE A HIGHER FOG POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 11Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...ANW
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