046
FXUS63 KOAX 101028
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
528 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 15 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SOME EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
05Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A POTENT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER
THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THE FEATURE HAS SPAWNED A STRONG 979 MB
CLOSED LOW, WITH A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE FEATURE
SOUTHWEST TOWARD NORTHERN KANSAS. BEHIND THE FRONT, SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FORCING FROM THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH H8 WAA COULD SPARK A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST
CAM GUIDANCE TENDS TO KEEP THE BULK OF ANY CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRONT LOCATION IS, BUT SHOULD A FEW
STORMS CREEP NORTHWARD, THEY COULD BE STRONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS OR HAIL GIVEN LINGERING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS
AND MUCAPE OF 500-1,000 J/KG. CHANCES REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% AND
AGAIN ARE LARGELY CONFINED ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE QUIET
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG RIVER VALLEYS OR LOW
LYING SPOTS AS WE SEE CALM WINDS WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING
SOUTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY, EXPECT A QUIET DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE. HIGHS WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT. LOWS COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BY FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL EJECT FROM WESTERN WYOMING TOWARD
THE DAKOTAS. THE FEATURE WILL INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS, WITH THE LOW
TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE FEATURE, EXPECT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COMBINED WITH MIXING INTO A 35-40 KT H8 LLJ,
SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT A WARM DAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA. LARGE
SCALE LIFT TIED TO THE H5 WAVE COMBINED WITH ANY FORCING FROM
THE FRONT MAY TRY TO FIRE OFF CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST ANYWHERE FROM 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS WHICH COULD
PROMOTE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. THE
LITTLE CAM GUIDANCE THAT GOES THAT FAR OUT SUGGESTS A VAST ARRAY
OF OUTCOMES THOUGH, WITH SOME GUIDANCE CONVECTING ACROSS THE
AREA LIKE THE FV3 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WHILE THE NAMNEST
FAVORS A MUCH LATER SOLUTION, AND THE RRFS DOESN'T EVEN CONVECT.
IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL BE ACROSS
MINNESOTA/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE MAIN H5 WAVE PIVOTS ACROSS
THAT AREA, WHICH IS WHERE MOST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPS. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, THE SPC
MAINTAINS THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. POPS REMAIN AT 30 TO 50% ACROSS MOST
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SERIES OF WAVES AND DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE,
NBM EXTENDED WOULD SUGGEST SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY (60-80%) HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR AREAWIDE
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY COOL TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COOLER HIGHS RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S GIVING US A TASTE OF FALL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FROM LNK AND OMA AND
POINTS NORTH. WINDS, LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING, WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING BUT REMAIN
SLOW AT OMA AND LNK. EXPECT GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON IN
NORFOLK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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