849
FXUS63 KOAX 102306
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
606 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30% CHANCE FOR STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING
ON MONDAY.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH PERSISTENT HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S ARRIVING BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 1 PM WERE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S WITH NOTABLY LESS HUMIDITY THAN WEDNESDAY IN MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OR/ID THAT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
ACROSS WY AND EVENTUALLY SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES
THROUGH SD/MN ON FRIDAY AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
WE'LL HAVE A DECENT RIBBON OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
THERE WILL ALSO BE QUITE A BIT OF CAPPING TO OVERCOME. IN
ADDITION, THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT, CAMS ARE PRETTY
SPARSE IN STORM COVERAGE IN OUR AREA, BUT A FEW STILL HINT AT
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP A BIT. GIVEN MODEST SHEAR, STORM ORGANIZATION
AND STRENGTH SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. LATEST FORECAST HAS A 20-30%
CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE FORECAST THEN GETS A LITTLE TRICKY BEYOND THAT, WITH
GUIDANCE DIFFERING ON WHERE THAT FRONT STALLS OUT/MOVES TO
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALONG WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF INCOMING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. GEFS GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS WE'LL SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT MORESO IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE
AREA. IN CONTRAST, EPS GUIDANCE IS VERY LIMITED IN PRECIP
COVERAGE IN THAT TIME PERIOD, WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND A MORE DIFFUSE FRONT. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THAT
BOUNDARY STARTS TO EDGE BACK NORTHWARD WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTING MORE INTO OUR AREA. AS
A RESULT, SUNDAY IS LOOKING FAIRLY WET, WITH 60-70% CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE WEEKEND FRONT WILL PUSH FARTHER NORTH ON MONDAY,
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO
MORE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT, WE SHOULD
SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION, THOUGH GUIDANCE DOES
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN THE
DAY, WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT THINGS. SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS POST-FRONTAL, BUT THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH OVERLAP IN
THIS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO YIELD AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OBVIOUSLY STILL LOTS OF SMALL-
SCALE DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT BOTTOM LINE, MONDAY LOOKS LIKE
OUR HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
WE WILL STAY IN A WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY HOVERING IN OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES SLIDE THROUGH THE ZONAL TO SLIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AFTER MONDAY WITH MOST OF THE
INSTABILITY REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH, THOUGH WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF RAIN, CAN'T RULE OUT A FLOODING THREAT IN A FEW SPOTS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH FRIDAY (80S),
COOL DOWN A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND (MID 70S TO 80), BRIEFLY WARM
BACK UP MONDAY, THEN COOL DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
(MID 60S TO LOWER 70S). OF COURSE, RAIN AND CLOUD COVER ON ANY
GIVEN DAY COULD THROW A LARGE WRENCH IN THE TEMPERATURES, SO
MAKE SURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF CYCLE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME FOG AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS AT TERMINALS AFTER 13Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT FEW TO SCATTERED
CEILINGS AT 1,500 TO 3,000 FEET. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AND GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT AT KOFK, TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE MID MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AT KOMA AND
KLNK AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. HAVE
REFINED TIMING OF STRONGEST WINDS AND INTRODUCED GUSTINESS AT
KOMA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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