962
FXUS63 KOAX 111715
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. 15-20% CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS
FRIDAY EVENING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE SATURDAY
EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY.
- HIGHS REACH THE 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY, THEN COOLING DOWN TO THE 60S TO LOW
70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
03Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK H5 RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE TO THE WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER WESTERN
WYOMING HAS SPUN UP A SFC LOW. THE 1017 MB SFC HIGH WHICH BROUGHT
OUR FANTASTIC WEATHER ON THURSDAY HAS FINALLY PUSHED OFF TO THE
EAST, RESULTING IN A PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH
OF NEBRASKA INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FRIDAY. INCREASED PBL MIXING BY THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO JUST AROUND H8 WHERE A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ IS SHOULD
HELP BRING SOME MORE MOMENTUM DOWNWARD, RESULTING IN FREQUENT
GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EXPECT
SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH A FEW PASSING
CLOUDS.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WILL SEE THE SFC
COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE PARENT LOW
TRACKS OVER EASTERN SD INTO SOUTHWEST MN. FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL
FEATURE COMBINED WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE
H5 WAVE COULD SPARK SOME CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
INSTABILITY PLUME OF 1,500 TO 2,500 J/KG OVERSPREADING MUCH OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING, AND WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30
TO 35 KTS, CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER, NEWEST 00Z HIRES CAMS SEEM TO STRUGGLE DEVELOPING MUCH
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST AREA.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CIN OF 150 TO 200 J/KG
REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND WITH THE BULK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THE STRONGER H5 WAVE IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND MN, CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO GET GOING ACROSS OUR
AREA. IF WE CAN MANAGE TO GET CONVECTION, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED BY
SOUNDINGS AND ALSO LARGE HAIL WITH STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 8 C/KM. MORE REDEVELOPMENT IS PLAUSIBLE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS H8 WAA LINGERS THERE ALONG WITH ANOTHER WEAK H5
WAVE TRAVERSING THE WESTERLY FLOW. WITH THIS UPDATE, HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 15 TO 20% FROM 00Z TO 11Z SATURDAY GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DEVELOPING, AND HAVE CONFINED THE POPS TO
THE FRONTAL AREA.
SATURDAY WILL SEE THE SFC FRONTAL FEATURE LINGER ACROSS THE BORDER
IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. LOOKING ALOFT, COULD STILL SEE SOME REMNANT
WAA DRIVEN FORCING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THAT COULD SPARK MORE
CONVECTION (POPS OF 15 TO 30% PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA). BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, WILL SEE MORE INSTABILITY
POOL NEAR AND ALONG THAT FRONTAL ZONE. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA SHOW INSTABILITY
RANGING FROM 1,500 TO 2,000 J/KG, BUT SOME CIN/CAPPING IS
SEEN TOO. LARGE SCALE FORCING STILL APPEARS TO LACK AROUND THIS
TIMEFRAME TOO WITH SUBTLE H5 HEIGHT RISES PROGGED OVER THE
AREA, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE STORM THREAT. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP,
THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS COULD PROMOTE A FEW
STRONG STORMS IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS WE'LL HAVE FAIRLY LONG HODOGRAPHS AND
STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM. AT THIS TIME, POPS REMAIN
AT 20 TO 30% ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. EXPECT COOLER
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S, WHILE HIGHS NEAR 80F ARE FORECAST IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. 30 TO 40% PRECIP CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER H5
IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH AND H8 LLJ WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION
PERSISTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
RAINY CONDITIONS SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO SUNDAY WITH AREAWIDE POPS OF
60 TO 80% FORECAST AS THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE SWINGS NORTHEASTWARD.
BY MONDAY MORNING, SHOULD SEE AN INTENSIFYING SHORTWAVE TROF EJECT
FROM THE MONTANA/ALBERTA AREA EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
DAKOTAS/MANITOBA. THE FEATURE WILL SPAWN ANOTHER SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
NORTH OF THE AREA, WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE, EXPECT GUSTY 30-35
MPH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A PLUME OF 500-1,000 J/KG
OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE AREA, AND COMBINED WITH SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT, COULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP.
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP, BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE BULK OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IS LOCATED NEAR TO JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NOT COLLOCATED IN THE BEST PLUME OF
INSTABILITY. BETTER H7-H5 MIDLEVEL FORCING APPEARS ONCE AGAIN
FOCUSED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA AREA. SOME GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT A SUBTLE WAVE TREKKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD HELP PROVIDE MORE LARGE SCALE LIFT.
AT THIS TIME, POPS OF 60 TO 80% ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY.
POP CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WE REMAIN
IN A ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED
DISTURBANCES RIDE IT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE
FROM THE 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM UP
MONDAY TO THE 80S AND LOW 90S, THEN COOLING DOWN TO THE 60S TO
LOW 70S (YAY, FALL!) TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ANY LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS QUICKLY SCATTERING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25-35 KTS INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
THEY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT, BUT THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS. FOR NOW, HAVE ABOUT A 20-30%
CHANCE OF STORMS AT A GIVEN SPOT, WITH OFK THE MOST LIKELY TAF
SITE TO SEE ANYTHING. TIMING WOULD LIKELY BE WITHIN AN HOUR OR 2
OF THE WIND SHIFT. SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CA
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