127
FXUS63 KOAX 112346
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
646 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES,
WITH MONDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION,
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING
THREAT.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 60S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY 80S
TO LOW 90S MONDAY, AND THEN 60S AND 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL AS A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS EVENING. EARLY AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW
SPINNING OVER CENTRAL SD WITH THE DRYLINE STRETCHING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NE PANHANDLE AND COLD FRONT WEST TOWARD THE
BLACK HILLS. CLOSER TO HOME AND AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH A FEW
SPOTTY 70 DEGREE READINGS. HOWEVER, 18Z OAX SOUNDING SHOWED
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ALOFT, THOUGH FARTHER NORTHWEST, STRONG
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS TAKING PLACE, SO SAID DRY AIR
SHOULDN'T BE TOO MUCH OF A HINDRANCE TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TIED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORTWAVE AS THEY ADVANCE MORE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN. PLUS, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST
SOME DEGREE OF CAPPING IN PLACE WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT. ALL THAT SAID, LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING TOWARD A LITTLE BIT MORE COVERAGE IN STORMS AS THE COLD
FRONT IMPINGES ON THE DRYLINE IN NORTHEAST NE THIS EVENING AND
PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 3000+
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS (35-40 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER), IF
STORMS DO FORM, THEY COULD BE A LITTLE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER. STILL, THINK THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING WILL
LIMIT THINGS A BIT, WITH LESS OF THAT SHEAR BEING "AVAILABLE"
FOR ANY GIVEN STORM, SO STORMS MAY BE A BIT DISORGANIZED. SO
BOTTOM LINE, THINK WE'LL SEE A FEW STORMS GO UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST NE/WEST-CENTRAL IA THIS EVENING AND
QUICKLY RAIN/HAIL THEMSELVES OUT, BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING SOME
50-60+ MPH WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. AS OUTFLOW
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD, ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM INTO
SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA, BUT THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER. CURRENTLY
LOOKING AT A 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS WITH A 5-15% CHANCE OF A
SEVERE STORM NEAR A GIVEN POINT.
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTH
OF THE NE/KS BORDER WHILE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
IN THE UT/ID/WY BORDER AREA PUSHES THROUGH AND LINGERING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT,
WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST
IA, WHERE THERE'S A 20-30% CHANCE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
STREWN ACROSS NORTHERN KS INTO SATURDAY EVENING WHILE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS BACK UP AND POINTS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
WHILE MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA, ALONG WITH PRETTY GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. ONCE AGAIN, COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT (30-40% CHANCE).
THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER US AND WE START
TO SEE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW NUDGE INTO THE
AREA. THAT SAID, WITH OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORM CHANCES,
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE A QUESTION MARK, SO STILL LOTS OF
DETAILS TO WORK OUT THERE. OVERALL, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY
WET WORK WEEK WITH THAT BOUNDARY REMAINING IN OUR VICINITY AND
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH. CHANCES CURRENTLY TOP OUT IN
THE 70-90% RANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED 30-40+
PERCENT CHANCES INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS AND AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING STORMS, POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL INCREASE WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND. OTHERWISE,
GIVEN THE BOUNDARY AND PRECIP CHANCES, TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL
BE A BIT TRICKY, BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECT A MILD WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S, A WARMER MONDAY (UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 90), FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY 60S AND 70S THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS
HAVE BEEN GUSTING 25-35KT, BUT THESE ARE WEAKENING GOING INTO
THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY SOME STORMS. STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS FRONT IN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD GROWTH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY LEADING SOUTH TOWARD THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN STORM POTENTIAL FOR KOFK AROUND 03Z
THIS EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T HAVE THIS LINE OF STORMS
HOLDING TOGETHER TO MAKE IT TO KOMA OR KLNK, BUT BKN CIGS AROUND
15000FT WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTHERLY
WINDS HOLD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA MID-MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
BEST ESTIMATE IS WE SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AROUND 14-16Z IN EAST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVING INTO OR JUST SOUTH OF KOFK, CONTINUING
INTO KLNK-KOMA AROUND 17-18Z. WHETHER OR NOT TERMINALS SEE
STORMS, NORTHERLY WINDS HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING (OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MCCOY
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