664
FXUS63 KOAX 121725
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1225 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCE (15-30%) OF STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES,
WITH MONDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 60S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY 80S
TO LOW 90S MONDAY, AND THEN 60S AND 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 740 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THIS EVENING WE'RE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN NE
NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE, WE'VE BEEN WATCHING STORMS GO UP
IN EASTERN SD WITH GROWING CU TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD O'NEILL. CU HAS STRUGGLED SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON
COUNTY SO FAR, LIKELY DUE TO MORE DRY AIR THEY NEED TO OVERCOME
FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW. WE DO NOTE CU DEVELOPMENT
IN BOYD AND NE HOLT COUNTIES, THOUGH. IF ANY OF THEM CAN GET
GOING, EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO LIGHT UP AS IT
MOVES INTO NE NEBRASKA. STILL ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS
THOUGH.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50-60+ MPH WINDS AND UP TO
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH, THEY WILL
ONLY ENCOUNTER MORE AND MORE DRY AIR WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM
NOSE ALOFT. WHAT WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR IS IF A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY GO UP AROUND WESTERN KNOX/ANTELOPE COUNTIES, PEAK
JUST EAST NEAR NORFOLK TO ALBION BEFORE FALLING APART AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH COLUMBUS-WISNER.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRIGGER STORMS ON
AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CANADIAN
HIGH SATURDAY MID-MORNING, CONTINUING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE
NEBRASKA AND SW IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THE
ENVIRONMENT CAN PRODUCE WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. IF
WE HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY, THIS MAY HELP TO HOLD
WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
WHILE IF WE CLEAR OUT WE MAY NOT GET THE NEEDED STEEP LAPSE
RATES. BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) OF 45 TO 55KT COULD SUPPORT SOME
BOWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. WITH BASES UP AROUND 9000 FT THERE IS ALMOST NO
TORNADO THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE STORMS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (FROM TODAY) BACK NORTH OF THE KANSAS STATE LINE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE A FAIRLY RAINY DAY WITH A TRANSITION FROM MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY MORNING.
WE SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM OKLAHOMA TO MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TRACKING FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FAIRLY DECENT
ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY EVENING TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A CLASH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE COOLER
AIR KEEPS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE
TERMINAL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A WINDOW FROM
ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z WHERE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
KOMA: EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LOWER HEADING INTO SUNRISE AS THUNDERSTORMS START
MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. COULD SEE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z BUT FELT THE BEST
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE TERMINAL IS BETWEEN
12-14Z. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT TIMING OF THESE STORMS
AND THEIR IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.
KLNK: KLNK IS IN A BIT OF A LULL AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST BETWEEN KEAR
AND KJYR. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, MAYBE SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ANOTHER BREAK IN STORM
ACTIVITY HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS
AFTER 10Z. FELT THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING STORMS WAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BUT COULD SEE A FEW
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EARLIER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...ANW
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