319
FXUS63 KOAX 121902
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
202 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST, FURTHER INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 250-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BUT CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDER. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO KICK OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING AROUND
THE 11Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN
OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW 90S FROM LINCOLN AND SEWARD SOUTH
TO THE KS/NE BORDER. AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY TO
TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT THE
TERMINAL. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT WINDS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY 12Z ALONG WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA. THERE IS A WINDOW FROM
ABOUT 10Z TO 15Z WHERE SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED, WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.
KOMA: EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH. CEILINGS
BEGIN TO LOWER HEADING INTO SUNRISE AS THUNDERSTORMS START
MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. COULD SEE
SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORMS AS EARLY AS 10Z BUT FELT THE BEST
WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE TERMINAL IS BETWEEN
12-14Z. STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT TIMING OF THESE STORMS
AND THEIR IMPACTS TO THE TERMINAL.
KLNK: KLNK IS IN A BIT OF A LULL AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST BETWEEN KEAR
AND KJYR. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, MAYBE SOME SLIGHT REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY, AND STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT ANOTHER BREAK IN STORM
ACTIVITY HEADING INTO TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS
AFTER 10Z. FELT THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNDAY
MORNING STORMS WAS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z BUT COULD SEE A FEW
DEVELOP SLIGHTLY EARLIER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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