177
FXUS63 KOAX 122328
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL POSSIBLE.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
COOLER AIR HAS ARRIVED IN THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST, FURTHER INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EXPECTED
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. MUCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 250-1000 J/KG ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
KS/NE BORDER. THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, BUT CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON, WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LIFTS NORTH
TOWARD THE KS/NE BORDER. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO KICK OFF SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING AROUND
THE 11Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY END
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS MONDAY BRINGING A BRIEF RETURN
OF SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN
THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS, WITH A FEW 90S FROM LINCOLN AND SEWARD SOUTH
TO THE KS/NE BORDER. AN UPPER LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, THERE ARE CONCERNS FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY TO
TOP OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
AT KOFK WILL BE FROM 11-15Z, AND FROM 09-13Z AT KOMA. AT THE
MOMENT, KLNK LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT
THERE, IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW/KG
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