723
FXUS63 KOAX 130416
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIZZLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S AND
60S.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
EARLY TOMORROW, ALLOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS UP TO 1.4", WHICH IS IN THE TOP 10%
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THANKFULLY, LESS INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN COOL, IN THE LOWER 70S.
MONDAY...
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP MONDAY, AS A SHALLOW RIDGE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BUMP UP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPARKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW INITIAL STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS A TORNADO OR TWO
WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET, AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE WORKED OVER.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING US COOL AND
WET. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
DETAILS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY,
AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, AS IS LIGHTLY
HIGHLIGHTED BY MACHINE LEARNING PROBS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEA, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SIGNAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE SCATTERED STORM MODE AND DRAWN OUT NATURE OF THE EVENTS
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NICE AND COOL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EFFECTING THE TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08-15Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
AT KOFK WILL BE FROM 11-15Z, AND FROM 09-13Z AT KOMA. AT THE
MOMENT, KLNK LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT
THERE, IT APPEARS LESS LIKELY. THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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