256
FXUS63 KOAX 130508
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1208 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIZZLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S AND
60S.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
EARLY TOMORROW, ALLOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS UP TO 1.4", WHICH IS IN THE TOP 10%
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THANKFULLY, LESS INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN COOL, IN THE LOWER 70S.
MONDAY...
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP MONDAY, AS A SHALLOW RIDGE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BUMP UP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPARKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW INITIAL STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS A TORNADO OR TWO
WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET, AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE WORKED OVER.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING US COOL AND
WET. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
DETAILS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY,
AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, AS IS LIGHTLY
HIGHLIGHTED BY MACHINE LEARNING PROBS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEA, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SIGNAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE SCATTERED STORM MODE AND DRAWN OUT NATURE OF THE EVENTS
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NICE AND COOL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD. A
DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER BETWEEN FL050 TO FL100. AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 09Z TO 13Z FROM LNK TO OMA AND EAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE SHOULD APPROACH OFK AROUND 15Z WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AT OMA AND LNK. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS TO ADJUST THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME AND LOCATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH A
POTENTIAL BROKEN MVFR CLOUD DECK. EAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY ONCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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