839
FXUS63 KOAX 131040
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
540 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING, ENDING BY AFTERNOON.
SEVERE STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
A FEW POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS FIZZLED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S AND
60S.
A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WARM MOIST AIR WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
EARLY TOMORROW, ALLOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS LOOK UNLIKELY, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWATS UP TO 1.4", WHICH IS IN THE TOP 10%
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THANKFULLY, LESS INTENSE UPDRAFTS AND
SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REMAIN COOL, IN THE LOWER 70S.
MONDAY...
STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP MONDAY, AS A SHALLOW RIDGE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BUMP UP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S, DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM/MOIST AIRMASS.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPARKING OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, AND DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW INITIAL STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY,
NOTABLE TURNING IN LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTS A TORNADO OR TWO
WON'T BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO LEAD
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, WHERE STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME
AREA.
STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT SEVERE
PARAMETERS WILL GRADUALLY WANE AFTER SUNSET, AS THE ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES MORE WORKED OVER.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, KEEPING US COOL AND
WET. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE
DETAILS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BOUNDARY,
AN OCCASIONAL STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, AS IS LIGHTLY
HIGHLIGHTED BY MACHINE LEARNING PROBS, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEA, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SIGNAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE SCATTERED STORM MODE AND DRAWN OUT NATURE OF THE EVENTS
SHOULD HELP MITIGATE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NICE AND COOL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH VFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
FL040-FL060. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE LIKELY WITH
HEAVIER RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AVIATION IMPACTS WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A RESULT. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS RAIN
EXITING LNK AROUND 13Z, OFK AT 14Z, AND OMA 15Z. THAT SAID, AT
LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING REMAINS AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AT SOME
TERMINALS. DRY WEATHER RETURNS AFTER 18Z, EAST WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BETWEEN
FL040-FL070.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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