660
FXUS63 KOAX 132337
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP
AND BECOME SEVERE.
- COOLER WEATHER WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED SOME LOW END POPS A FEW HOURS FURTHER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS ARE HINTING AT A
SLOWER EXIT OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION. AREAS ALONG AND PARTICULARLY
WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO
EAST.
A RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. THERE
IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY MORNING, THE RIDGE WILL BE SLIDING EAST OVER
IOWA AND MINNESOTA WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER MONTANA AND CANADA SLIDES
EAST WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, KICKING OFF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500+ J/KG, DECENT SHEAR
AND LAPSE RATES WILL ALL BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS
WELL. SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL DECREASING HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS; HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PRIMARILY IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MVFR TO IFR CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION, BEFORE
RETREATING TO THE WEST. LATEST MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A LINE OF STORMS FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT, PUSHING NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES
BY AROUND 14Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHEN A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY POP UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, AT THE TAIL
END OF THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 12-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...KG
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