104
FXUS63 KOAX 141911
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
211 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS TUESDAY EVENING LOOK LIKE THEY'LL IMPACT THE
SAME AREAS, THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
- A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. WHILE THE THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES WILL DIMINISH, REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN MAY LEAD TO
AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE BIG QUESTIONS BEING HOW UNSTABLE WE CAN GET
AND HOW MANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS WE CAN GET. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL KS,
EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A
STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STARTS PUSHING THROUGH LEADING TO
STORM DEVELOPMENT. 18Z KOAX SOUNDING DID SHOW A VERY STOUT CAP,
THOUGH OBVIOUSLY WAS WELL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. IN ADDITION,
SATELLITE SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
ASIDE FROM SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NE WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 70. AND YOU DON'T HAVE TO GO VERY FAR SOUTH AND WEST
TO SEE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SO WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA
REMAINS CAPPED NOW, THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ON THE WAY, THOUGH
QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAR NORTH IT'LL GET.
AS FOR MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE'S VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SPC
OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR TO
YIELD SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, BUT WITH THE LINE GOING UP
QUICKLY, THINK IT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT OF A MESSY STORM MODE AS
WE GO INTO THE EVENING. AS STORMS FIRST DEVELOP, ALL SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING TORNADOES AND EVEN
A STRONG TORNADO, OWING TO LARGE, LOOPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.
HOWEVER, THREATS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SHOWS 1.75-2" OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4 KM. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO RAMP UP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AND POINT TOWARD THE NE/KS BORDER, WHERE 3+ INCHES OF
RAIN FELL IN SOME LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING. WHILE SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE DOESN'T PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP IN THOSE AREAS, THERE
REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SURGES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE LINE OF INITIAL CONVECTION OWING TO LINE-
PARALLEL 0-3 KM SHEAR. THIS COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT RAMPS UP. THEREFORE, ENDED UP ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, PAIRING AREAS WHERE
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY WITH AREAS THAT WILL
REQUIRE LESS RAIN TO SEE FLOODING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING RELATIVELY WET WITH PRETTY
MUCH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RAIN CHANCES
WILL PERSIST, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80, AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES THROUGH. WHILE THE DAMAGING WIND, HAIL,
AND TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY, WE WILL SEE A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH STILL SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THOSE WILL EXTEND. IN ADDITION,
NAEFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 1.75-2 INCH
RANGE, GOOD FOR THE 99TH+ PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE A PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER. SHOULD IT LOOK LIKE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL
END UP IN OUR AREA, MAY NEED TO EXTEND PART OR ALL OF THE FLOOD
WATCH.
A STEADY STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MEANDERS BACK
NORTH, EVENTUALLY REACHING SD BY FRIDAY. AT LEAST ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN TO LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. FRIDAY IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE A DRYING PERIOD,
THOUGH STILL LOOKING AT 20- 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ANY DRY
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND AND GIVES US CONTINUED 30-50%
CHANCES OF RAIN. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE KEEPS
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BELOW (UNDER 5%) THROUGH THIS ACTIVE
PERIOD, THOUGH AGAIN, POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL HINGE ON PRECIPITATION ON A GIVEN DAY.
CURRENTLY, UPPER 60S AND 70S ARE FAVORED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AND MARKS A RETURN TO THE 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, EXPECT TO BE
BACK DOWN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BUT AGAIN, LOTS OF MOVING
PARTS, SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES ON A GIVEN DAY IS
RELATIVELY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS TIMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKING LIKE 23-03Z AT LNK AND OMA WITH
PRIMARY TS THREAT STAYING SOUTH OF OFK. EXPECT 50 KT WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN LINE, BUT
TS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS WITH THAT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE POTENTIALLY
RETURNING AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY,
GUSTING 25-35 KTS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
LIGHTER AND NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ052-053-066>068-089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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