618
FXUS63 KOAX 150357
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1057 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IF
ADDITIONAL STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK LIKE
THEY'LL IMPACT THE SAME AREAS, THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.
- A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. WHILE THE THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES WILL DIMINISH, REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN MAY LEAD TO
AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LINE OF STORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A POTENTIAL TORNADO NEAR AVOCA, NE.
A 50 KT LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING A RESURGENCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. OBSERVED PWATS AROUND 2" EXCEED
THE 99TH PERCENTILE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY. RAINFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS OF AROUND 10,000 FT.
CAM QPF TOTALS SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS, UP TO 3-5" IN FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, AS SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
WHEN THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
A STEADY STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MEANDERS
BACK NORTH, EVENTUALLY REACHING SD BY FRIDAY. AT LEAST ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN TO LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
FRIDAY IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE A DRYING PERIOD, THOUGH STILL
LOOKING AT 20- 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ANY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND
AND GIVES US CONTINUED 30-50% CHANCES OF RAIN. MACHINE LEARNING
SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BELOW (UNDER
5%) THROUGH THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, THOUGH AGAIN, POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WILL HINGE ON PRECIPITATION ON A GIVEN DAY.
CURRENTLY, UPPER 60S AND 70S ARE FAVORED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AND MARKS A RETURN TO THE 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, EXPECT TO BE
BACK DOWN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BUT AGAIN, LOTS OF MOVING PARTS,
SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES ON A GIVEN DAY IS RELATIVELY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
FROM JUST NORTH OF FAIRBURY, NE TO MAPLETON, IA. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO IMPACT KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 00-03Z, AND
GENERALLY REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KOFK AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP BEHIND THE MAIN LINE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BY AROUND
18Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH INITIALLY, AND TURN TO THE
NORTH BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NEZ052-053-066>068-
089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG/CA
AVIATION...KG
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