737
FXUS63 KOAX 151031
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
531 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
- A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. WHILE THE THREAT FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES WILL DIMINISH, REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN MAY LEAD TO
AN INCREASED FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A LINE OF STORMS SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A POTENTIAL TORNADO NEAR AVOCA, NE.
A 50 KT LLJ WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING A RESURGENCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. OBSERVED PWATS AROUND 2" EXCEED
THE 99TH PERCENTILE, CLIMATOLOGICALLY. RAINFALL RATES OF 2" PER HOUR
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYERS OF AROUND 10,000 FT.
CAM QPF TOTALS SUGGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS, UP TO 3-5" IN FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, AS SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE SAME
LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING,
WHEN THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP FINALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
A STEADY STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY MEANDERS
BACK NORTH, EVENTUALLY REACHING SD BY FRIDAY. AT LEAST ON AND OFF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN TO LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS.
FRIDAY IS GENERALLY FAVORED TO BE A DRYING PERIOD, THOUGH STILL
LOOKING AT 20- 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, ANY DRY PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND
AND GIVES US CONTINUED 30-50% CHANCES OF RAIN. MACHINE LEARNING
SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE KEEPS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BELOW (UNDER
5%) THROUGH THIS ACTIVE PERIOD, THOUGH AGAIN, POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE ROUND.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE
WEEK AND WILL HINGE ON PRECIPITATION ON A GIVEN DAY.
CURRENTLY, UPPER 60S AND 70S ARE FAVORED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AND MARKS A RETURN TO THE 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEHIND THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT, EXPECT TO BE
BACK DOWN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. BUT AGAIN, LOTS OF MOVING PARTS,
SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES ON A GIVEN DAY IS RELATIVELY LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST OF LNK AND OMA
HAS SHOWN LIGHTNING, BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS MAY STILL LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. IN
GENERAL, VFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED, BUT VERY BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY OCCUR. OFK IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE NORTH OF THIS ACTIVITY. AFTER 18Z, A GRADUAL
END TO RAIN OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG RAIN LINGERS AT OMA AND LNK. THIS RAIN
COULD LINGER INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON, BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
DRY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION TONIGHT, A REDUCTION TO CEILINGS IS LIKELY TOWARDS
THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ052-053-066>068-
089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA/KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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