448
FXUS63 KOAX 152331
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
631 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
- A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THIS MAY LEAD TO RISES ON
LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND LARGE HAIL,
AND FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH TROUGHING OVER THE PACNW. THIS PUTS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDER A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, WITH SHORTWAVES
CONTINUING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURE WILL
STAY ON THE COOLER SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES IN
EASTERN COLORADO WILL BRING AN UPPER-LEVEL WARM FRONT BACK NORTH
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. WHILE THIS WILL BRING BACK
SOUTHERLY FLOW, CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
STAYING IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA, PULLING THE SURFACE FRONT
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND MID 70S NORTH WHERE THE
FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. SHEAR IS REALLY WEAK
ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MEANING LITTLE-TO-NO SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WITH MORE DISORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION.
A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY ADVECTING IN DRIER AIR FROM WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL BRING
DOWN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND COULD LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE DRY LINE
DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OMAHA-NEBRASKA CITY
EASTWARD (60-70%) WHILE FARTHER WEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MORE 30-
45%. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AS NSSL
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS THIS TIME PERIOD. NAM, GFS, AND
ECWMF STRUGGLE TO LINE UP STORMS WITH THE BETTER 0-1KM AND 0-3KM
SHEAR, BUT IF THESE COME INTO ALIGNMENT WE COULD SEE STRONGER
STORMS, MAINLY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS HAZARDS FRIDAY
EVENING.
WE REMAIN IN THIS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DETAILS BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN AS FINE DETAILS BECOME
MORE DIFFICULT FOR OUR LONGER-RANGE MODELS TO PICK OUT. TEMPERATURES
MAY COOL BACK DOWN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, NOTHING LOOKING PARTICULARLY SEVERE
AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR US TO BREAK OUT OF THIS PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS COULD MEAN DRIER, SEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MESSY FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN LATER THIS
EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS KICKING OFF THE PERIOD AS SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING, BECOMING
INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AND MOVING NORTHWARD ALONGSIDE WORSENING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN A STAIR-STEPPED FASHION FROM VFR TO MVFR,
THEN TO IFR TOMORROW MORNING. WE'VE TARGETED A CERTAIN WINDOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
LINGER LONGER AFTER THE SCATTERED BAND PASSES THROUGH, WITH SOME
MIST DEVELOPING LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS KLNK AND POTENTIALLY
KOMA. TOWARDS 00Z TOMORROW, CEILINGS WILL TRY AND START
IMPROVING BUT UNTIL THEN, EXPECT WINDS TO BE INCREASINGLY
EASTERLY WHILE STAYING NEAR 10 KTS IN SPEED WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ052-053-066>068-
089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
091.
DISCUSSION...KG/MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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