033
FXUS63 KOAX 161728
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS HIGHEST FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN.
- A WET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND
WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THIS MAY LEAD TO RISES ON
LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE
HAIL, AND FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING FEATURES BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, LOBBED EASTWARD BY A
DIGGING TROUGH PUSHING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC COAST. ZOOMING IN
LOCALLY, WE FIND OURSELVES TO THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED
FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WITH BROAD WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OVERRUNNING THAT BOUNDARY TO
EXTEND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD. WORKING WITH THOSE BROADER
LIFT MECHANISMS ARE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
THAT HAVE ALLOWED SOME OF THE ELEVATED STORMS REACH THEIR FULL
POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT THEIR PEAK OF
2+ INCHES TO GO WITH LONG/SKINNY INSTABILITY PROFILES THAT ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL EXPAND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH MCVS
DEVELOPED BY THE CONVECTION AND SUBTLE ZONES OF FRONTOGENESIS
BEING THE THINGS TO TRACK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONITORING. HEALTHY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF ESTABLISHED STORMS, WITH
WETTER SOILS MAKING FLOODING AN INCREASED RISK THROUGH NOON
TOMORROW WHEN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SLOWS. RIVER BASINS SO
FAR HAVE BEHAVED ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE EAST
NISHNABOTNA RIVER NEAR RED OAK, BUT FOCUSED RAIN IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WOULD GIVE US MORE HYDRO-RELATED
HEADACHES IN THE SHORT-TERM. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN RAINFALL IS
FORECAST FROM 1 AM TO 6 AM WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THAT DECREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THROUGH 1 PM.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL TO START OUT TOMORROW, DREARY CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND AND STYMIE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL AS
VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH A COOLER LEAN
TO FORECAST HIGHS THAN WHAT IS USUALLY ON DECK FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR (80 FOR OMAHA). ANOTHER NIGHTTIME SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS ON DECK TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LLJ NOSES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, TREKKING OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE GOTTEN RECENT
RAINFALL. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS LOWER POTENTIAL IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL RATES, MAKING FLOOD CHANCES LOWER BUT STILL POSSIBLE.
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE A WIDESPREAD MASS RESPONSE TO
THE EAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO THAT
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES ABACK INTO THE UPPER 70S, ONLY TO BE
IMPROVED FURTHER FRIDAY FOR OUR ONE DAY OF ABOVE-AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
THAT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY,
DEVELOPING A FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO ITS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN FLANKS (BOTH OF WHICH ARE FORECAST TO BE LARGELY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA). WHAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA WILL BE A
MORNING WARM FRONT THAT SHOOTS NORTH, WITH A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN SD TOWARDS
WESTERN KS. THIS COULD HAVE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG IT TO CREATE
SOME VERY HIGH-BASE STORMS THAT WOULD CARRY WIND POTENTIAL DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS, WITH DEVELOPMENT MUCH FARTHER
EAST TOWARDS THE INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS LOOKING UNLIKELY. OVER
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND HEADING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, TIMING OUT
POORLY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WATCHERS ACROSS THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS,
ANOTHER SHOT AT MOISTURE FOR WET AREAS COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT WITH OTHER HAZARDS LOOKING UNLIKELY.
THE WINDS OF CHANGE BROUGHT IN BY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD TAKE
TEMPERATURES IN A REFRESHING DIRECTION, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
SATURDAY FALLING FURTHER TO NEAR 70 SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER STILL
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT AT RAINFALL WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS PERIOD AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF CONUS STATES
WHILE DRAGGING FORCING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TO CREATE
ADDITIONAL SHOTS AT RAINFALL. THIS AGAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
PARTICULARLY POTENT RAINFALL AT FACE VALUE, BUT WET SOILS BRINGS IN
A LOW END CHANCE FOR HYDRO ISSUES. AT THE MOMENT THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK IS LOOKING A BIT DRIER, BUT RAINFALL WON'T BE TOO FAR
AWAY AS WE TRANSITION FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
AT 17Z, IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BUILT INTO LNK/OMA, WITH LOW-END
MVFR AT OFK. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
STEADY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
HOURS WHEN -SHRA MAY AGAIN BUILD IN. THERE IS SOME UPSTREAM SKY
CLEARING, AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR A BRIEFLY-CLOUD-FREE PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MORE CONFIDENT THAT ALL SITES WILL MAINTAIN
CEILINGS AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CEILING
HEIGHTS TO DECREASE WITH VISIBILITY ALSO DECREASING, ESPECIALLY
AFTER DARK. FOG THEN BECOMES LIKELY AT ALL SITES, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 1/4SM OR LESS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
13-18Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NEZ052-053-
066>068-089>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ069-079-080-
090-091.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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