975
FXUS63 KOAX 171050
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
550 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BLANKET THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH A 5% CHANCE THAT SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SUBTLE VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
AS SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE MOIST AIRMASS HAS YIELDED MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
THIS EVENING. LATEST RRFS AND HREF RUNS SUGGEST A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP UNDER 1/4 SM, FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS PICK UP
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH LOW
TO MID 80S EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPILL INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER, THIS TIME TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY, ALLOWING
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY TO POOL OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD ON
MONDAY, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FEATURE A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF TURNING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL, AT
AROUND 20-30 KTS, WITH BETTER SHEAR TRAILING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, MOST AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WITH A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW 80S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE EJECT FROM COLORADO TOWARD
THE AREA. THE FEATURE WILL HELP TRIGGER OR NEXT ROUND FOR RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR MORE RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE SEE
MORE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AT 15 TO 30%.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS AND FOG, DENSE AT TIMES, HAS BLANKETED
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF LNK AND OMA, BUT ADDITIONAL AVIATION IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. AT THIS TIME, LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. VISIBILITY IS MORE VARIABLE WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
MINOR VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS RECENTLY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OMA. OMA MAY TEMPORARILY SEE DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. IN GENERAL, IFR AND
MVFR VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN FOG. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF LOW CEILINGS AND
FOG ONCE AGAIN. CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE BULK OF THIS
NORTH OF OFK AND OMA, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AVIATION IMPACTS
AT THESE TERMINALS CURRENTLY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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