264
FXUS63 KOAX 171658
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1158 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BLANKET THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
- CHANCES FOR MORE STORMS ON FRIDAY, WITH A 5% CHANCE THAT SOME
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. OFF AND ON RAIN CHANCES PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SUBTLE VORT MAX WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
AS SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL WINDS PULL WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION.
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE MOIST AIRMASS HAS YIELDED MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
THIS EVENING. LATEST RRFS AND HREF RUNS SUGGEST A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP UNDER 1/4 SM, FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA. THUS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AS WINDS PICK UP
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH LOW
TO MID 80S EXPECTED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPILL INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER, THIS TIME TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY, ALLOWING
1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY TO POOL OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING, BRINGING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. SIMILAR TO THE EVENT WE HAD ON
MONDAY, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS FEATURE A NOTABLE AMOUNT OF TURNING IN
THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS FAIRLY MARGINAL, AT
AROUND 20-30 KTS, WITH BETTER SHEAR TRAILING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT EXITS THE FORECAST
AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT, MOST AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S,
WITH A FEW OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES REACHING THE LOW 80S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE EJECT FROM COLORADO TOWARD
THE AREA. THE FEATURE WILL HELP TRIGGER OR NEXT ROUND FOR RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR MORE RAINFALL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE SEE
MORE DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AT 15 TO 30%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES: A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BROKEN CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
BREAKS APART. THOUGH VFR CEILINGS (MAINLY BETWEEN 5,000-10,000FT)
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TIME BETWEEN 21-5Z
TODAY, THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HANGING AROUND AS LOW AS 1,000-3,000FT
MAY OCCASIONALLY FILL IN ENOUGH TO BECOME THE A MVFR CEILING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW OFTEN THIS MAY OCCUR OR HOW SCATTERED THE CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BECOME THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHAT DOES SEEM CERTAIN
IS THE FACT THAT AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN AFTER 4Z WITH
IFR (POSSIBLE EVEN LIFR) CEILINGS LIKELY AFTER 6Z FOR ALL SITES.
CLOUD BASES MAY EVEN DROP TO LESS THAN 500FT BETWEEN 8-12Z. VFR
CEILINGS WOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING UNTIL AT
LEAST 13Z FOR KLNK OR 16Z FOR KOMA/KOFK. THOUGH SOME LIGHT
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY MAY BE OBSERVED BETWEEN 1-14Z FOR
KOMA/KLNK, IT IS UNLIKELY FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 5 MILES
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF WINDOW TONIGHT. THE BETTER POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
FORMATION WILL BE CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE KOFK AREA WHERE
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS 1 MILE BETWEEN 7-14Z.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL: MOST OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY, ESPECIALLY FOR KOMA & KLNK. SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO
DEVELOP AROUND 3-6Z AROUND KOFK WITH OCCASIONALLY SHORT BURSTS OF
TRAILING SHOWERS AND STORMS LASTING AS LATE AS 10-13Z. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTH THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP, THOUGH THE BEST
WINDOW FOR KOMA WOULD FALL AROUND 5-6Z (30% CHANCE). THESE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 30KTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO
ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.
LLWS/WINDS: LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING EASTERLY
TODAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DIRECTIONS FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LATER TURN SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS PRESSURE FALLS JUST EAST OF THE AREA. SPEEDS WILL FOR THE
MOST PART HOVER NEAR 10KTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH GUSTS PICKING UP
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (AS HIGH AS 20-25KT GUSTS). LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TO BREAK INTO THE KOFK/KLNK AREA BETWEEN 13-15Z FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET PEAKS, THOUGH THE LATEST SHEAR PROFILES
APPEARS TO BE MORE ON THE MARGINAL SIDE THAN CERTAIN FOR NOW (25-
35KTS)
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...STUMP
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