488
FXUS63 KOAX 180430
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAY, FRIDAY.
- MORE STORMS REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (40-50%
CHANCE). THERE IS A 5% CHANCE THAT SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TONIGHT, DRAGGING WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE REGION, THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THIS COULD VERY WELL BE LIMITED BY SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BLOWING AT 5-15 MPH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS, MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES INCREASED RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BY MID AFTERNOON, 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL DOESN'T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE, AT AROUND 20-30 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN
HODOGRAPHS IS QUITE NOTABLE. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STILL
APPEARS TO BE LACKING, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY REMNANT MCV FROM PREVIOUS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
IF SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS A LLJ RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, A STRONG ELEVATED
STORM OR TWO, CAPABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK TO THE 70S AND
80S. BY SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS WON'T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S. CRISP,
COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
A RIDGE DEVELOPS OUT WEST, AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA AND KLNK FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY
TARGET FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, OCCASIONALLY GIVING KOFK A
GLANCING BLOW BETWEEN 04-06Z AND 11-13Z. CEILINGS WILL ALSO
LOWER WITH THE PASSING SHOWERS, BECOMING MVFR BY MIDNIGHT, AND
FALLING TO IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, SOUTHERLY WINDS REACHING SPEEDS OF
5-12KTS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM DEVELOPING. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE AS SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL BY AROUND 15Z AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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