423
FXUS63 KOAX 181726
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
- MORE STORMS REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (40-50%
CHANCE). THERE IS A 5% CHANCE THAT SOME COULD BE SEVERE.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
TONIGHT, DRAGGING WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT,
PRIMARILY OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. WITH
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE REGION, THERE REMAINS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER, THIS COULD VERY WELL BE LIMITED BY SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS BLOWING AT 5-15 MPH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS, MOST OF FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY DRY, WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES COMES INCREASED RISK
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BY MID AFTERNOON, 2000-3000 J/KG OF
CAPE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING IN FROM THE WEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STILL DOESN'T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE, AT AROUND 20-30 KTS, BUT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IN
HODOGRAPHS IS QUITE NOTABLE. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT STILL
APPEARS TO BE LACKING, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOT EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT ANY REMNANT MCV FROM PREVIOUS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
IF SURFACE BASED STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, AS A LLJ RAMPS UP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHILE THE BULK OF
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, A STRONG ELEVATED
STORM OR TWO, CAPABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL, CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL DROP BACK TO THE 70S AND
80S. BY SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS WON'T MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S. CRISP,
COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
A RIDGE DEVELOPS OUT WEST, AND BRINGS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED NORTH FOR THE DAY, BUT WE'LL SEE THEM
SPREAD BACK SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH CIGS AROUND 700 FT MOVING
BACK INTO KOFK AROUND 05-07Z. MEANWHILE, WE'LL BE WATCHING
STORMS FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
STARTING AROUND 23Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE THESE STORMS
WILL INITIATE AND TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL STALL, BUT THERE IS A WINDOW FROM 00-04Z WHERE
STORMS COULD IMPACT KLNK OR KOMA. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS AROUND 09-12Z
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY AS THIS FINALLY PUSHES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE WE SEE MVFR
CIGS MOVE INTO KOMA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (17-18Z),
AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD NORTH COULD TRY AND
PUSH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ALSO EXPECTED TO IMPACT KOMA AND KLNK
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 07Z AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE JUST OFF THE SURFACE ALONG THE FRONT. THIS GOES AWAY AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AROUND 06-07Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...MCCOY
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