928
FXUS63 KOAX 202333
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (60-80% CHANCE) MOSTLY NORTH CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY.
- COOLER, CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S, LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO LOW 70S BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS MORE
LIKELY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IS TRIGGERING THESE SHOWERS
WITH MOISTURE POOLING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST KS TO WESTERN NY.
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WHEN WE START TO SEE A RIDGE
BUILD BACK UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER UNTIL WEDNESDAY THOUGH AS WE
DON'T SEE THE WIND REVERSAL BACK TO SOUTHERLY UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE 850-MB WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WE DO SEE THE LLJ RETURN ADVECTING IN MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE KEEPING US FROM CLEARING OUT COMPLETELY. THIS WILL
TEMPER THE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS STARTING
IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY, MID 60S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE RETURN OF THE LLJ
WILL ALSO BRING BACK SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNALS FOR ANY PERIODS OF POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY AT KOFK. HAVE ADJUSTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF IFR CEILINGS BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATING LATER ARRIVAL. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD DIP TO LIFR, WITH THIS LARGELY
CONFINED TO KOFK FROM 08Z TO 13Z. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO FALL
TO IFR, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KOFK TERMINAL.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THAT TERMINAL AFTER 12Z,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THAT
ACTIVITY COULD TRACK AND ENTER THE KOMA AIRSPACE. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MENTIONS OF MIST AT SITES THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH
CEILINGS RISING BACK TO MVFR THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12
KTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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