164
FXUS63 KOAX 210500
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE PERSIST FOR MOST OF MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (50-70%) LARGELY CONFINED TO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. COOL TODAY IN THE
50S AND 60S.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WARMING
TO THE 70S NEXT WEEKEND. MORE CHANCES (50-70%) FOR RAIN RETURN
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
0436Z GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS REVEALS AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF STRATUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION TO WIDELY
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, DRIZZLE IS ONGOING OVER A VAST MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS INDICATED FROM THE VARIOUS METAR
OBSERVATIONS.
THE VORT MAX AND H5 WAVE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. PERSISTENT WEAK LOW LEVEL OMEGA
SEEN FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS-SECTIONS SHOULD KEEP THE
DRIZZLE/SHOWER ACTIVITY IN PLACE TOO MAKING FOR A DREARY START
TO THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS POPS REMAIN IN THE 50-70%
RANGE THERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. THE BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.
FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY, THE SFC HIGH SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS DRY
AND QUIET, ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY WARM THOUGH TO THE 60S KEEPING IT COOL.
EXPECT A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT TOO AS LOWS REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AREAS
WEDNESDAY AS THE H8 HIGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. THIS MAY HELP FORCE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS (30-50%) WEDNESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BY THEN, THE H5 PATTERN SHOWS PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN OUR AREA AS RIDGING TAKES PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHORTWAVE TROFS TO RIDE SAID
FLOW, AND WHEN PAIRED WITH THE H8 WARM ADVECTION, WILL SEE MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. THURSDAY, EARLY FRIDAY, AND
EARLY SATURDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES (50-70%) AT US SEEING
WETTING PRECIP AREAWIDE. CHANCES SOMEWHAT DECREASE BY SUNDAY BUT
WITH SEVERAL SUBTLETIES NOTED PER MODEL GUIDANCE AT THAT POINT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S. THERE IS SOME INDICATION WE WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID
70S THOUGH TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS SOME
H5 RIDGING BUILDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY AT KOFK. HAVE ADJUSTED ARRIVAL
TIME OF IFR CEILINGS BACK A FEW HOURS BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATING LATER ARRIVAL. THERE IS A 30-50%
CHANCE THAT CEILINGS COULD DIP TO LIFR, WITH THIS LARGELY
CONFINED TO KOFK FROM 08Z TO 13Z. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO FALL
TO IFR, WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KOFK TERMINAL.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THAT TERMINAL AFTER 12Z,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THAT
ACTIVITY COULD TRACK AND ENTER THE KOMA AIRSPACE. OTHERWISE
CONTINUED MENTIONS OF MIST AT SITES THROUGH MID MORNING, WITH
CEILINGS RISING BACK TO MVFR THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12
KTS FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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