574
FXUS63 KOAX 220446
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING AND A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT EXPECT MUCH MORE
DRY TIME THAN WET.
- MUCH OF WEDNESDAY IS FAVORED TO BE DRY BEFORE PERSISTENT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES, WITH A
BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY PERIOD FAVORED ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUED TO SPIN ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
THIS EVENING, WITH A SHORTWAVE VERY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY EDGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN SD. CLOUDS AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES IN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, COULD SEE A LITTLE DRIZZLE DEVELOP (20%
CHANCE). A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER UT MOVES THROUGH. IN GENERAL, THOUGH, EXPECT MORE DRY TIME
THAN WET ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 60S.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RAMP UP
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING TO LEAD TO SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW STORMS, MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT A FEW
COULD SNEAK IN DURING THE DAY. DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO WARM ALL THAT MUCH, WITH CLOUD
COVER STILL LINGERING. IF YOU MANAGE TO STAY DRY ON WEDNESDAY,
THAT'LL BE THE DAY YOU'LL WANT TO MOW THE LAWN, BECAUSE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WE'LL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POINTING INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT, WE'LL SEE RAIN CHANCES
LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE 30-40% THROUGH SATURDAY, GENERALLY
PEAKING IN THE 70-90% RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER EVERY NOW AND THEN.
SUNDAY IS TRENDING TOWARD A DRY AND WARMER DAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH AND TEMPERATURES GET
INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. HOWEVER, THE DRY PERIOD LOOKS
SHORT-LIVED WITH GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND GIVES US
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SOME FOG OR
DRIZZLE ALSO RETURNING. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY
GENERALLY REMAINS ABOVE 3-4SM, BUT COULD SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
DIPS TO 2SM OR LESS, ESPECIALLY AT OFK AND OMA WITH ANY HEAVIER
DRIZZLE. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
CEILINGS RETURNING TO MVFR BY THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
ON TUESDAY, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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