965
FXUS63 KOAX 221838
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
138 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MUCH OF WEDNESDAY IS FAVORED TO BE DRY BEFORE PERSISTENT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND WITH THE RAIN CHANCES, WITH A
BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY PERIOD FAVORED ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY'S COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FITTING FOR THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
LATER THIS EVENING. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
IMPROVING BEYOND 5-10 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE LIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID-LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER THE QUAD CITIES EAST OF HERE AND A SFC LOW JUST
NORTH OF IT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
WINDS WILL GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT
REMAIN LIGHT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM CONSENSUS, BUT
IS INCREASINGLY PICKING UP ON THE THREAT OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT BEST CHANCES IN WESTERN IOWA AND LOW AREAS WHERE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTEST.
WEDNESDAY
DESPITE A MILD START WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS, HIGHS WILL
FLOUNDER IN THE 60S UNDER THE CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES. FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 9AM WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CLEAR
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE DAY'S TERM. PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA THANKS TO
ISENTROPIC UPLIFT (WAA) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST OF
THE AREA AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. CONSIDERED ADDING
DRIZZLE TO A GREATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LIFT TO BE MISSING IN ACTION.
POPS BECOME "LIKELY" ALONG THE SD BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE AS A
COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE CWA.
WILL KOMA SEE ANY PRECIP? (POPS 47%) IT'S WORTH PAYING
ATTENTION TO AS THE ASOS HAS REPORTED AT LEAST A TRACE OF PRECIP
FOR 12 STRAIGHT DAYS... THE LONGEST SUCH STRETCH SINCE MAY
2021.
THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE SAGGING COLD FRONT, MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
AND PWAT VALUES PUSH OVER 1.5 INCHES. PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR
MOST, HITTING BOTTOM AT ABOUT 50% IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. HALF AN
INCH OF PRECIP IS FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. YOUR
MILEAGE MAY VARY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL, RELEGATED TO THE 60S FAHRENHEIT.
FRIDAY
FRIDAY BRINGS THE FORECAST'S HIGHEST POPS AS A SHORTWAVE TROF
IS PROGGED TO END THE WEEK, PUSHING RAIN CHANCES NEAR 90%. BEST
RAIN CHANCES COME BEFORE NOON AND REPEAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO LIGHTNING AND THUNDER -
WHILE POSSIBLE - WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
NOT EXPECTED.
THE WEEKEND
WARMER CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A SHORTWAVE
TRANSIENT H5 RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH THE CORN BELT. SATURDAY'S
HIGHS SHOULD SNEAK INTO THE 70S AS SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE TEMPS PEAKING NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS (UPPER 70S) WITH 80S POSSIBLE ALONG KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
NEXT WEEK
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROF PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND ROCKIES, SWEEPING MOISTURE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS EVEN HAS THIS TROF PHASING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO. THIS COULD BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAIN SHOULD IT ALL COME TOGETHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA MID-DAY TODAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. VISIBILITY HAS RETURNED TO
UNIMPEDED OBS AT MOST SITES. KOFK OBSERVATIONS ARE
INTERMITTENTLY OUT TODAY WITH TECHNICIANS WORKING ON THE ASOS.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST UNTIL OVERNIGHT WHEN IFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COURSE OF WEDNESDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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