790
FXUS63 KOAX 231633
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST OVERNIGHT AND EACH MORNING
(75-90%). RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
WARMER, DRY STRETCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN ON
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY...
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS, BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS TO THE EAST AND WEST. WEAK MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS, COUPLED WITH WAA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE
LOW 70S. FARTHER NORTH, MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL HOLD
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVES LIFTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, COUPLED WITH
CONTINUED WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WILL SUPPORT SEVERE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FIRST ROUND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH POPS PEAKING
AT 60-80% AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERALL, INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED,
SO THUNDER SHOULD BE ISOLATED. INTERMITTENT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY (POPS 30-60%), WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORTING ANOTHER MORE EXTENSIVE BAND OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING (POPS 70-90%).
HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE 60S,
THANKS TO THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING PRECIPITATION SHIELD. IF CLOUDS DEPART IN TIME TO ALLOW
FOR SOME SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID 70S,
WITH THE HIGHEST ODDS FURTHER WEST. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE 1-1.50" RANGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH POCKETS UP TO 2" REMAIN POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS. SOME SOLUTIONS ALSO SUGGEST A
CONTRIBUTION OF PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO, ALTHOUGH ITS EVENTUAL INFLUENCE REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
A POTENT, HIGH AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOMETIME NEXT WEEK, WITH LONG-RANGE
FAVORING LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE PASSAGE. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE, ANOTHER WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED.
GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL AND POTENTIAL FOR OVER-PERFORMING MOISTURE
PROFILES, THIS COULD SUPPORT A FLOODING THREAT. NBM GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY BRINGS A 60-75% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 1", AND A 35-45%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2". ADDITIONALLY, SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME POCKETS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GEFS AND EPS-BASED
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT A 5% PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS PERSIST LATE THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE
KOFK THROUGH 23/21Z. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP AND
IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH A GRADUAL EAST-TO-WEST
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AND LIGHT, THOUGH A FEW 18-20 KT GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KOFK
THIS AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (AFTER 24/06Z), WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER, WILL MOVE IN FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KOFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page