355
FXUS63 KOAX 242314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY WET GROUND POSING A RISK OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATE-MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICT
MIDLEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE DAMPENING THE RIDGE LOCALLY. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE, A RIBBON OF BOTH GULF MOISTURE AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE ARE
PULLING UP INTO THE REGION, PUSHING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.70-1.90"
RANGE (ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER). ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, AIDED BY WAA
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT, HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (POPS 80-100%), WITH A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE. LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS
THROUGH THE DAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ALREADY DREARY CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 60S TODAY.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES EMERGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODIC SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AS WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PERSISTS. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH FRIDAY
(POPS 30-60%) BEFORE INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
(POPS 70-90%), WHEN STRONGER ASCENT SUPPORTS A BROADER AREA OF RAIN.
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THUNDER ISOLATED, WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW RUMBLES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S.
SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
ENDING AND SUBSEQUENT CLEARING. WHERE POCKETS OF SUNSHINE RETURN
EARLY ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID 70S, WITH
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES, OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL PERSIST IN THE 60S.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.50-2.00 INCHES. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE BRINGS A 55-75%
PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2.00 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH CAM
GUIDANCE SHOWING POCKETS OF TOTALS APPROACHING 3".
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
BRIEF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE A FLEETING BREAK FROM THE WET
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE HELPING PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE THEN INCREASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WILL REPLENISH GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF HURRICANE
POLO MAY ALSO DRAW INTO THE REGION.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
FRONT RANGE EARLY MONDAY BEFORE TRACKING EASTWARD AND SWEEPING AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE LATER MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES (POPS 60-80%),
WITH POPS TAPERING OFF AND LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT
WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL IF
MOISTURE EXCEEDS CURRENT EXPECTATIONS, COULD LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY 50-70% FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH
AND 30-45% FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY OVERLAPS FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR. GEFS- AND EPS-
BASED MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A 5-10%
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE THREATS WILL BECOMES CLEARER AS GUIDANCE COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON HOW QUICK THE SYSTEM
WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST, WITH THE MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS
BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND PULLING THE TROUGH EAST BY MID-DAY
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BACK INTO THE
MID 70S. CONVERSELY, EPS GUIDANCE STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING MORE PROLONGED CLOUD COVER
AND MOISTURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PATCHY
LIFR CONDITIONS, AS RAIN AND MIST CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z, BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WHILE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...KG
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