423
FXUS63 KOAX 250439
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1139 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S, BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY WET GROUND POSING A RISK OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE SHOWERS RAMP UP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK AT BEST. SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.5"-2". LREF PROBS ESTIMATE
A 60-80% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.5" THROUGH SATURDAY AND A 35-
50% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2.5" OF RAIN.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES COOL, IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WIND DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT OF
THE REGION. IF AFTERNOON SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THROUGH, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PREVAILS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, GIVING US
ANOTHER GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON MONDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. NBM PROBABILITIES MAINTAIN 60-75% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND 35-50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2" MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE WELL-SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, ABUNDANT
RAINFALL, AREAS OF FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE GRADUAL
DUMPING OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK TO MITIGATE CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN, A MORE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A 5-10% PROBABILITY IN MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING DETAILS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO COME ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE TO WIDESPREAD IFR WITH PATCHY
LIFR CONDITIONS, AS RAIN AND MIST CONTINUES. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z, BUT SHOULD
FILL BACK TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WHILE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND
GENERALLY UNDER 12 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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