038
FXUS63 KOAX 250540
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S, BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY WET GROUND POSING A RISK OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE SHOWERS RAMP UP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK AT BEST. SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.5"-2". LREF PROBS ESTIMATE
A 60-80% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.5" THROUGH SATURDAY AND A 35-
50% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2.5" OF RAIN.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES COOL, IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WIND DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT OF
THE REGION. IF AFTERNOON SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THROUGH, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PREVAILS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, GIVING US
ANOTHER GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON MONDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. NBM PROBABILITIES MAINTAIN 60-75% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND 35-50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2" MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE WELL-SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, ABUNDANT
RAINFALL, AREAS OF FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE GRADUAL
DUMPING OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK TO MITIGATE CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN, A MORE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A 5-10% PROBABILITY IN MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING DETAILS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO COME ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS OBSERVED AT TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
ALONGSIDE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. CEILINGS AT ALL TAF TERMINALS
WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE
VISIBILITIES HOLD IN MVFR RANGE, AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 15-16Z. THEREAFTER, SHOULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN,
BUT MIST WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER TERMINALS WHILE STRATUS REMAINS
LOCKED IN AT 500 TO 900 FT. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, MORE
RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE WHILE THE IFR/LIFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT
TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOME GUSTY AT KOFK IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AT 20 TO
25 KTS. LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR BELOW 12 KTS PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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